Fairfield County Real Estate

Mid-Fairfield New Construction

2012-01-21T08:14:00.000-08:00

New Construction has fared well against more recent resale properties in similar price ranges in Westport. Many of today’s buyers looking in similar price ranges seem to prefer owning a new home. The attraction lies in the combination of these homes having the most recent technology, design, & appliances, as well as in knowing that one can make their own mark on a house, that has driven these sales. In Westport, some of these homes are on streets that are in transition. Buyers coming from Manhattan, or Brooklyn understand that often when one new home is built on the street others will follow, thereby increasing the value
of the street.

There were 46 New homes sold in 2011 in Westport. The average sales price was
$2,131,011. 2010 volume was almost identical with 45 home sales, but the average selling price in 2010 was $2,500,153. There were fewer very high end new home sales in 2011, but the decrease in average sale prices has been influenced by two factors. The still shaky confidence in the housing market has led buyers to look for less expensive homes, and this in turn has had builders looking for smaller, less expensive lots which will allow them to build in the more affordable price ranges. The so-called ‘sweet spot’ in new construction is below $2
million. In some cases this has pushed down the prices of slightly older homes with kitchens and baths that might seem just a little out of date, compared to brand new homes.

The market for New Construction appears to be balanced. There are 61 homes currently listed for sale as New Homes in Westport. 12 of these homes have been on the market for 3 or more months, in their completed form. These are carryovers from the 2011 market. There would appear to be at first glance more than one year’s inventory available. However,16 of these new homes have not broken ground yet. One can surmise that builders are waiting for some sell off of the current inventory to start building. If one takes those 16 into account there remains 45 new homes currently on the market. Based on the sales of 2010 and 2011
we should see almost all of the current inventory sold off before the end of 2012. That bodes fairly well for builders. Remembering the effects of the 1980s the majority of builders are working on speculative homes one at a time. There are a handful of builders with deeper pockets working on multiple projects. Though there have been some builders that have been in financial difficulty (there are currently 2bank owned new homes on the market), they represent a smaller percentage than the builders of the late 1980s.

Westport continues to be the locomotive for new Construction in this area. Speculative builders have avoided building in Weston for several years, though there are a couple of local builders who slowly bring new product to the market. The same is true in Wilton. Fairfield has seen a few new homes built in the beach area and in Greenfield Hill, but it too is very limited.

Springtime & Yearly Lists

2012-01-20T12:20:00.000-08:00

There are always a certain number of items that need attending to in a home on a yearly basis, or more regularly. We all overlook certain things that we need to do in our lives but in order to get everything done in our ever busier lives I’ve found that it is helpful to keep a list of those items both in a written form (as a reminder) as well as on my time-management program (which I also sync. with my phone). Here are some of the ones that I tend to overlook,but really should be done, and most of these items should be done about 6 weeks from now:

• Change the filters on your heating and air conditioning unit (if your have a forced air system), at least once every 3 months. I mark the filters with the date in case I forget when I last put them on). I like to do it on the first day of each quarter. Some heating folks will tell you to do it more often. Look at the filter itself to see how dirty it is . If it’s very dirty after 3 months try every 2 months.
• Have your heating and cooling inspected every year. This is kind of like rotating the tires on your car. The more often you do it the more likely that the system will last longer.
• Close the shut off valve in basement by October 15th to avoid frost issues, and potential water damage. They can be turned back on in April.
• Do a yearly visual inspection on the exterior of the house after the winter months to see if there has been any damaged sustained to the roof, gutters, and walkways. Start to schedule repairs in the early spring to avoid the summer rush when it is more difficult to find repair people.
• Schedule the annual service inspection of the heating system in late spring-the heating companies tend to be too busy in the winter to do servicing then. You can also take advantage of the time to call the A/C service providers to do their inspection a few weeks later, in late May usually works, do have everything in good working order before the providers get swamped in the summer months
• Spring is a good time to start fertilizing and seeding your lawn.
• If you tend to get bees or wasps late spring is also a good time to schedule the exterminator to come by. While he’s there have him check that there aren’t termites or other unwanted bugs or other creatures that might have infiltrated the house in the winter months
• If you’re on well water spring is also a good time to have the pump checked, and you might want to check out the water itself. Your water treatment specialist can do this for you, or you can also take a sample and have it checked at Brooks Labs in Norwalk.
• Open the covers of your heating ducts and take a vacuum hose to get out dust and other debris.
• Open your dryer exhaust at least once a year and clean out excess lint which could make drying your clothes more difficult and be a potential fire hazard
• If you make changes to your home, or buy new furniture or paintings take some digital photos and retain them somewhere online where they could be produced if there is a theft or damage to the house.

2011 Mid-Fairfield Single Family Home Statistics

2012-01-02T10:32:00.000-08:00

Westport Weston Wilton Fairfield Norwalk

Homes bindered 11 2 11 22 23
Homes Under Contract 31 11 12 52 52
Sold 2011 340 103 176 521 433
Marketing time 100days 114 116 110 118
Sold 2010 347 118 163 595 505
Average Sales Price '11 $1,340,636 838,488 958,406 694,515 575,648
Average Sales Price '10 1,454,518 929,994 879,330 679,782 565,927
Ratio List to sell 2011 94% 93% 94% 94% 94%
Ratio List to sell 2010 93% 92% 94% 94% 94%
Month's Inventory 2011 10.6 17.4 11.3 9.7 10.8
Month's Inventory 2010 11.6 13.2 11.6 10 10.8
Percent change -9 31.6 -2.8 -2.2 unchanged
Change Median Sales Price -5.40% -9.60% 5.40% 5.8 -5.10%
Median Sales Price $1,085,625 750,000 825,000 549,900 419,000

2011 Mid-Fairfield results were mixed. Wilton showed the greatest improvement in number of homes sold vs.the previous year. Westport saw a slight decrease in overall sales and median price. Volume was more impacted in Norwalk,Weston, and Fairfield. Looking at the bigger picture, the Case-Schiller N.Y. Metro Price Index is now indicating March 2004 levels and the index was virtually unchanged between the 4th quarters of 2010 and 2011. Financial crises and natural disasters both impacted sales in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2010 and 2011. Most recent activity (properties under binder or contract) points to increased activity in the 4th quarter which may be reflective of increased consumer confidence.

To search for properties and local information please go to my website at www.RobMakesItSold.com, or email me at westportagent@hotmail.com to get my
E-Newsletters including statistical updates, home maintenance tips, and Real Estate news.

The highest compliment my clients can give me is the referral of their friends, family and business associates.

Statistical data compiled from Consolidated Multiple Listing Service

Norwalk Condominiums

2011-12-30T11:33:00.000-08:00

Norwalk Condominium sales have been hampered in recent years by a larger than
average inventory, especially in terms of new construction. Much as in the late 1980's the builders seem to have obtained financing and jumped on the bandwagon just as the real estate market was about to change.

The inventory of new and newer condominiums has been slowly decreasing through
sales in the past 2 years. Over the same two year period there has also been a marked increase in the general condominium inventory. With increased inventory and a slightly decreased demand it should not be surprising that both pricing and marketing time have been affected.

The official Multiple Listing Service shows that the Marketing Time for condominiums in Norwalk in 2011 was 152 days, an increase of 32.2% over 2010. That
marketing time may not be a true reflection of the time that should be expected to sell a condo in Norwalk. In 2011 there was 13.7 months of inventory, indicating that
based on 2010 sales it would take that period of time to sell off the inventory. The flip side is that the inventory actually decreased 7.7% from a 14.8 month inventory level in 2010.

The median condominium sales price in Norwalk in 2011 was $255,000. This represented a decrease of 14.4%. There were 185 closed sales, or 35 less than in 2010.

There were some positive signs in the last quarter of the year. Of the 12 condos currently under binder (representing the most recent activity), the average asking price is $288,642. More importantly, of the 30 condos currently under contract the average listing price is $342,100.

Breaking down the aforementioned numbers further, there are 6 properties either under binder or contract in the price range of $350,000-450,000 vs. 28 that sold for all of 2011.

2012 selling figures look poised to be much better than 2011.

Preparing for the Spring Market

2011-12-19T13:42:00.001-08:00

If you’re thinking of selling your home in the spring market, you should start early to get it ready. The first impression left is the one that will remain, so it is best to do it before the house is listed. Depending on the repairs and improvements your home needs, it could take longer than you might expect.

Major overhauls like redoing bathrooms and kitchens aren’t always necessary in order to sell your home. If your bathrooms and kitchen could use updating you should consider whether spending the money to do it will result in a good return on your investment. Your Realtor can help you compare the potential costs and return on your money. The alternative is to price your home based on its current condition. Don’t expect to list it at the same price as the other homes for sale that have had upgrades.

Even if yours doesn’t need updating there are a few minor changes you can make that will have a good return on your investment. The most significant changes you can make include:

-Refinishing floors
-Adding a fresh coat of paint
-De-cluttering
-Cleaning like there’s no tomorrow

These sound easy to accomplish on paper but getting them done is another matter. You can begin by assessing what needs to be done and doing so early in the year. If you plan on re-carpeting or having other flooring changed, you will need to allow plenty of time to do so before listing your home for sale. Changing the flooring will require moving the clutter first and it is better to paint before redoing the flooring. That means you’ll need to hire a painter and flooring professional in advance.

Updating Flooring

You’ll need to allow time for choosing a flooring specialist to work with. It is best to have an idea of what changes you want to make before meeting with him. Many experienced professionals will be
prepared to give you a quote on the spot, but some will get back to you . If you plan to compare quotes, you will need more time .

Flooring professionals need lead time to order your product and to book their service crew. Some flooring experts will book you within a couple of weeks while others will need several weeks’ notice. Set a target date for your flooring installation with a goal to have it completed a week or two before you want to show your home. Be prepared to take extra precautions after the floors have been done. It is best to remove shoes before entering the house. This will allow new polyurethane to properly harden and will keep your floors in pristine condition.

Re-Carpeting

Recarpeting in certain areas of the house such as the basement or lower level with cement or stone floors are worth doing. However, hardwood floors are far and away the buyer’s preference in our area, and the price differential between hardwood and high quality carpet is not great enough to justify carpet unless leaving the house while floors are being refinished is too great a hardship.

Painting

In most cases I advise my clients to get a professional painter. Allow time to get estimates. Choosing the paint colors should not be underestimated. A Realtor with a good eye or a designer can be very useful in choosing colors that will allow your home to show at its best. When in doubt go neutral.

De-Cluttering

Once the walls are painted and the flooring laid you will need a week or two or two finish de-cluttering closets, crawl spaces, the garage and so forth. You may want to rent a portable storage unit to temporarily remove items from view. You’ll need a week of lead-time for delivery of the bin, a day or two to load it, and another appointment to have it taken away to the storage facility.

Cleaning

The more you can clean the better. You may want to consider hiring a cleaning service to clean specific areas like your appliances or washrooms and kitchen in order to conserve your energy. A professional window washer that cleans both the indoors and outdoors will bring that extra sparkle to your home making it look fresh and new.

Setting Deadlines

In order to achieve the best results in a timely way, it is important to draw up a schedule outlining deadlines:
Start by choosing what you feel is an ideal listing date. Then work backwards.
-Allow a couple of weeks to clean your home and stage your furniture just before showing it and for an appointment with your realtor to finalize your contract.
-Set a deadline for having the flooring completed allowing a six-week period to get the process going.
-Set a two to four week period before that for painting.
-Often floor baseboards need removing prior to flooring changes. Removing, touching them up and reinstalling them will gobble up another day or two.
-Allow at least a week to de-clutter and complete other repairs.

In the past the spring market has been the best time to list a house. This has been even more true in the past couple of years. As you can see, to accomplish even a minor overhaul needs several weeks or months of lead-time.

In today’s competitive real estate market, it pays to be prepared. Spring time will arrive sooner than you think. I would be happy to provide recommendations for contractors and painters. A home that has curb appeal and shows well attracts the best buyers, and as a result, the best offers. Of course I am also available to provide you with a free Comparative Market Analysis to give you an idea of what your home is worth in today’s market.

Current Activity

2011-11-16T10:46:00.000-08:00

Inventory has slowly been decreasing in the past month or so and there is only a trickle of new listings coming to the market. Sales activity has been limited in the past month or so.

There has been an uptick of activity in single family homes under $600,000 in all of the towns. Fairfield and Norwalk, with a much larger inventory of homes in this price range, have much larger numbers than do Westport, Weston and Wilton.

Looking at yearly figures to date and comparing to 2010, Westport is running almost exactly as it did last year. The only town that continues to be ahead of 2010 figures is Wilton with 162 closed sales in 2011 vs. 146 last year. Weston is running about 10% behind 2010, a slight improvement over figures earlier in the year, and both Fairfield and Norwalk are running 14% behind single family home sales in 2010.

Autumn is the Best Time to Buy Real Estate

2011-11-12T14:49:00.000-08:00

The spring time is traditionally the busiest time of year in the real estate market as buyers and sellers prepare to make changes in the warmer months. Savvy buyers know that some of the best values can be found in the autumn when motivated sellers are willing to sell at a discount rather than holding a property through the winter. The savings can be substantial.
Some properties have been on the market for an extended period of time because they are overpriced or may have some defect that makes their sale difficult. The key for a buyer is having an experienced broker who will be able to sort through the inventory and make analytical recommendations about which properties to see. I often start to make a list of my own in the late summer of properties that I follow through the fall. These properties fall into all price ranges.

January-August stats

2011-09-07T13:53:00.000-07:00

Mid- Fairfield August Update

August is usually one of our slowest months and this August confirmed the rule. One town that had a little more than usual activity in August was Fairfield which had 33 properties binder in recent weeks.
Recent activity has been on the lower end of the scale in Westport, Fairfield and Norwalk. Westport’s 12 current bindered homes average an asking price of $1,161,166, below the average of homes sold in Westport year to date. Fairfield’s bindered homes were just below the average sold price. In Norwalk the lower priced homes seem to be moving in August with the 25 homes currently under binder having an average list price of $419,664. This in comparison to the average 2011 home sale’s price of $611,905.
Wilton and Weston provide a slightly different picture. Bindered sales in both of those towns were above the 2011 average sales prices. In Weston the 3 homes under binder have an average listing price of $963,333 vs. an average sales price of $863,977. Wilton’s 11 binders averaged $1,049,636 vs. an average sales price of $971,219. Wilton has been the picking up some of last year’s slack and is on a sales pace that is 9% over 2010 numbers. Weston, on the other hand has seen year to date sales fall 9%. These two towns are a little like the Upper east side and Upper west side of Manhattan. They have a lot of similarities, and right now the flavor of the year is Wilton.
Pending sales, those that are under contract, paint a better picture of the early summer activity. Westport, with 42 properties under contract, had a lot of early summer activity. The larger towns of Fairfield and Norwalk have 59 and 61 pending single family home sales. Though larger than Westport numbers, Fairfield has a population about double the size of Westport, and Norwalk is about triple. Weston and Wilton, with 9 and 11 homes under escrow had a relatively slow summer, but it worth noting that the average list prices of homes under contract is $1,080,44 in Weston and $1,049,682 in Wilton. These figures are both above the average price of homes sold in 2011 in those two towns. Million dollar homes in these two towns offer a lot of value in comparison with coastal towns.
General sales are down in both Fairfield and Norwalk, with very similar percentages; -14% in Fairfield, and 15% in Norwalk. Westport and Wilton are both up 9% and Weston is down an equal amount.

Mid-Fairfield Waterfront Property Update*

2011-08-05T13:59:00.000-07:00

This report is focused upon properties in Westport and Fairfield that are within the areas generally considered to be the ‘beach’ area. A distinction needs to be made between properties that are either direct waterfront on Long Island Sound, have direct LI Sound views, or are located on a body of water giving direct access to the Sound with a dock on the property,and those that are within walking distance of the beach, or have distant water views. Westport has two separate beach areas, the Compo Beach area, which is generally considered to be south of Greens Farms road to the Sound between Compo Road south and Hillspoint road, and Saugautuck Shores, which includes those properties on the peninsula off Duck Pond Road.

For Fairfield, I am not including the general Southport area, but will include direct waterfront property within Southport that have direct water views or docks. The beach area in Fairfield consists of properties located south of Oldfield Road east of Sasco Hill Road. Lakefront properties are not included in this overview.

Direct waterfront property sales in Westport have remained on the same pace in 2011 as in 2010. However, 2011 has seen the average sales price (year to date) increase from $1,913,750 in 2010 to $3,577,313 in 2011, an 87% jump. In the Compo Beach area sales are slightly off from 2010 levels in terms of units (3 fewer units sold thus far in 2011) but the average sales price is up 12% to $2,177,222. The 6 pending sales (under contract) average $2,582,833, so we
may see an increase in average sales prices in the Compo beach area before the end of the year. In Saugatuck Shores the sales pace has been very consistent with 2010, but again average sales prices have increased significantly to $2,605,902.

In Fairfield there has been a marked increase of sales in the general beach area, up about 50% from 2010 totals through July, however the sales averages have fallen about 10% to $1,142,177. This reflects a greater number of sales below $1,000,000, which is also mirroring activity in the rest of Fairfield. Sales of direct waterfront homes were down in the first two quarters in Fairfield , as were average prices, but there are currently 8 direct waterfront properties in the beach area under escrow or contract, averaging approximately $1,900,000, so end of the year direct waterfront totals are likely to surpass 2010 totals.

General inventories in both Fairfield and Westport have decreased since the height of the Spring market, but pockets of inventory in direct waterfront has increased since the start of summer.

*Based on Consolidated Multiple listing system information

Mid-Term Real Estate Activity

2011-07-16T07:19:00.000-07:00

2011 Midterm Results*

Now that we’re past the July 4th weekend and its aftermath, it’s time for a quick rundown on real estate activity. County-wide the median sales price has been practically unchanged at $430,000 in the past two quarters of results provided by the Connecticut Multiple Listing Service.
For those looking at homes in Southwest Connecticut these numbers may not seem reflective of local pricing, but bear in mind that Fairfield county extends well beyond the Mid-Fairfield area that I primarily cover. It is one of 8 counties in the state, but it is worth noting that it is the only county that saw positive growth in 2010 in both number of sales and volume of sales.
I usually use average pricing in my quarterly results, and use median pricing when looking at yearly results, comparing both average and median prices. The first two quarters of 2011 have seen increases in average pricing in most of the coastal towns including Westport, Fairfield, and Darien as well as inland towns such as Weston, Wilton and New Canaan.
This mid-term report covers the period from January 1, 2011 to June 30th, 2011. However, I wanted to note some of the more recent activity since July 1. There has been a mini burst in activity which reflects buyers and rentors looking to be settled before the beginning of the school year. Westport has seen 13 binders since July 1 for single family homes, and 12 rental binders during that time (as of July 15). The single family home asking prices averaged $1,142,421. This is about $200,000 below the average sale prices year to date (which I will speak about below)-an indication of recent activity under $1,000,000 in Westport.
Weston is only showing 2 recent binders since July 1, but a number as of yet unreported activity will increase these numbers in the weeks ahead. Wilton has showed increased strength in the past couple of weeks with 12 new binders on single family homes and 4 rental binders. The single family homes averaged listing price of $875,000 is slightly below sales averages in the first six months and confirms the lower end activity seen in Westport.
The ‘sweet spot’ of Fairfield real estate falls into the range under $1,000,000 as well, but the 17 recent binders had an average ask price of $783,682 which is actually higher than the average sales prices year to date (see below), as Fairfield has the most offerings at this price point. There were also 10 rental binders in the past two weeks.
In the first two quarters Westport has continued to outperform the surrounding towns in mid-Fairfield with 170 single family home sales in 2011 vs. 146 in the first 6 months of 2010. The average sales price was $1,362,070. Sales numbers have fallen in Wilton, Weston, and Fairfield, although the average sales prices have actually increased. Looking beyond mid-Fairfield, activity in Darien has decreased in the first two quarters, while New Canaan sales have increased. Combined sales in Darien and New Canaan was 179 compared to 170 in Westport, but their combined population of 38,000 is 10,000 more than Westport. Average sales prices are considerably higher in Darien and New Canaan, with a huge spike in the first two quarters in New Canaan to over $2,000,000 due in large part to 38 homes that have sold for over $2 million year to date.
2011 Weston sales have been similar to 2010 results with 54 sales in the first six months of 2011 vs. 59 in 2010. The average sales price has increased to $832,978 from $808,484 in 2010. Wilton sales were off as of June 30, but recent binders mentioned above have put in back on pace to match 2010 sales levels with average sales prices jumping to $917,081 as of June 30th, about 13% higher than the previous year.
Fairfield has taken the biggest ‘hit’ in sales volume in 2011 with only 254 single family home sales in the first six months vs. 303 in 2010. The most recent sales activity is a good sign for Fairfield, and there has been increased activity in the past month or so in the beach area.

*Statistics as per The Consolidated Multiple Listing Service

Mid Fairfield Activity January-May 2011

2011-06-09T11:44:00.000-07:00

For the most part home sales in Mid Fairfield are at very similar levels to 2010. The only exception is Westport which is about 25% ahead of 2010 sales at the same time period. There have been 128 single family homes sold in Westport thus far, with an average sales price of $1,401,283. 102 sales were recorded last year through May at an average sales price of $1,344,227. That translates into an increase in sales of approximately 15% over 2010. In the past month only 84 new properties have come to the market vs. 114 last year in May, or a decrease of 23.7%. There are an additional 106 properties under escrow at an average listing price of $1,222,915. The differential between average sales prices year to date, vs. those in escrow point to recent activity just above and below $1,000,000.

Weston and Wilton have been on the same pace as 2010. The figures are strikingly similar in their consistency. Year to date there have been 44 sales in Weston vs. 46 in 2010, and 57 sales in Wilton vs. 58 in 2010. The average sales numbers were $838,067 in Weston and $912,363 in Wilton. The latter represents a marked upward trend in Wilton, which had average sales in the same time period last year averaging $834,578. Wilton also has a larger number of properties under escrow, with 47 vs. only 26 in Weston (although Weston does a population that is about 40% smaller than Wilton’s). Of special note is that the properties under escrow in Wilton are listed at an average of $1,048,919, a big jump over last year’s averages. Weston also saw an increase in the average listing price of properties currently under escrow at $902,373. In the latest trend, in the month of May both Weston and Wilton saw market inventory increases of approximately 21%.

Fairfield also saw an increase of inventory of about 22% in May (68 new listings vs. 39 in May,2010). Sales activity slowed to 196 in the first 5 months of 2011 vs. 212 in 2010. However, the average sales price rose from $649,173 thru May, 2010 to $705,979 in 2011. There are 145 properties currently under escrow in Fairfield at an average listing price of $721,911.

April 2011 Market Update

2011-05-05T06:15:00.000-07:00

April 2011 Market Update

April started out strong in Westport, and tailed off a bit towards the end of the month. Still escrow activity increased by 56 homes compared to April 2010, or a 53.3% increase. With inventory increasingly slowly, (368 properties in 2011 vs. 362 the previous year) relative supply of homes decreased. The median sold price of $1.25 million in April ’11 compared favorably to the 735K in 2010-a good indicator of where sales are going, that is to say that the middle of the market is now where much of the activity is taking place, as compared to early 2010 which saw more activity in the lower end of the market. Year to date the median price of properties under escrow has increased to $1.14 million, up from 900k in 2010.

The picture of the Weston market in April was slightly different. Though April saw an increase in properties opening escrow, 25 vs. 14 in 2010, Weston is still about on the same pace as in 2010 and the median sold price of homes year-to-date of 747k compared to 822 k in 2010, is a sign of the lower end of the market driving sales. On a positive note the months of housing inventory decreased by 3.4% showing a slight improvement.

April saw a jump in escrow activity similar to Weston’s but year to date Wilton is doing better than Weston with 73 properties going to escrow vs. 54 in 2010 through April 30th, and the months of inventory declined to 8.2 months vs. 11.6 months in 2010. Median price increased in April to 905k but year to date that figure is 768k, a drop from 822k in 2010, and just slightly higher than in Weston.

Fairfield’s market seems to be improving. New properties dropped somewhat in April but the overall numbers year to date are down 25.9%. April saw a nice rebound in escrowed sales from 74 to 97 in 2011 and totals through the end of April are up from 200 in 2010 to 240 in 2011, an increase of 20 per cent. The median price of homes that have closed this year went up to $640,000 in April, an almost 30% increase over the previous year. Lower priced home sales still continue to dominate sales.

First Quarter 2011-Consistency Stands Out

2011-04-20T12:12:00.000-07:00

Mid-Fairfield First Quarter 2011 Results and Tendencies

What seems most striking when looking at Westport 1st quarter statistics is the consistency compared to the same quarter in 2010. For both 2010 and 2011 there were exactly 314 properties that came to the market from January 1 to March 31st. The number of closed sales in that same period was exactly 69 in both the first quarter of 2010 and 2011. However, there are several indications of increasing activity when compared to last year. There were 139 properties that opened escrow in 2011 compared to 87 in the first quarter of ’10. There was a marked upswing in March 2011 compared to that month in 2010, with 62 properties opening escrow compared to 29 the previous year, and the median sold price year to date has increased 19.5% to $1,081,250.
The 1st quarter results in Weston were less promising with 28 sales through March 31st compared to 36 the previous year, with the median sold price decreasing 11.6% to $726,500. March sales year over year were exactly the same, at 11, but properties that opened escrow declined by 9.8% from 41 in 2010 to 37 in 2011. New properties for sale was also very consistent with 128 in 2011 vs. 132 in 2010.
Weston’s western neighbor, Wilton, is faring better this year than Weston. It has had a 48.8% increase of properties opening escrow, with 64 compared to 43 last year’s 1st quarter. Closed sales year to date also increased to 40 compared to 33 in the 1st quarter of 2010, a 21.2% increase. Like Weston it did see a decline in the median sales price, from $819,000 to $768,000, a decrease of 6.3%. New properties for sale was 160 compared to 160 last year, also strikingly similar.
The town of Fairfield has seen improvement over its 2010 figures. There have been 205 homes that have opened escrow compared to 164 in the first quarter of 2010, and increase of 25%. Closed sales have decreased 14.9% to 114, compared to 134 of first quarter 2010, but median sales prices have increased slightly to $533,750, a 4.7% increase, though well below median prices at the height of the market. New properties for sale actually decreased significantly in Fairfield, from 552 in the 1st quarter of 2010 to only 396 in 2011.
Typically a fairly large percentage of 1st quarter closed sales represent 4th quarter activity in the previous year. It is worth noting that we have had particularly difficult weather in the first 3 months of 2011 which has slowed activity somewhat. It appears that buyer demand is strong, based on a number of recent instances of multiple offers on new offerings in a variety of price ranges.

Looking at Resale Value when Purchasing

2011-03-11T06:32:00.000-08:00

Location – Local Community, Town or City

The first step in searching for a home involves selecting the community in which you want to live. There are many factors to which you should pay attention, not only for yourself, but because at some point you may need or want to resell the house. Carefully choosing your community is the first step in "location, location, location" and can help maximize your future potential resale value.

Economic Stability

When choosing a community for your purchase, it makes the most sense to buy in a town or city with a viable and stable economy. Five, ten, or even fifteen years from now – when you want to sell your home – you can have a reasonable expectation that your community will still be a desirable place to live.

Determining the character of the town or city in which you want to live should be high in your search criteria. In addition to residential neighborhoods, are you looking for a mixture of commercial and business districts, or would you prefer to live in a more rustic environment away from commercial interests? Businesses provide jobs to the local residents, and also add an income source that the city can use to upgrade and maintain roads and city services. Purchasing in a rural community will allow you to avoid the noise and hustle and bustle of more commercial towns but it may also come with higher taxes to make up for lack of commerce.

I suggest getting a lay of the land-take a drive and see how well the community is maintained. You have probably heard of "pride of ownership" when referring to an individual home or an automobile. Look to live in a town that demonstrates community pride, as well.

Local Government Services

In addition to community pride, check on the services provided by local government. One example would be the local library system. Are there several library branches? Do they stock a good selection of books, cds, dvd's, etc.?

You should also look into local crime statistics and see how the city compares to the national average and other local communities. Is the police force effective and responsive to community needs? Are fire stations located strategically around the community so that they also can respond quickly in an emergency?

Another area of inquiry is community services. Does the town sponsor youth sports and have well maintained athletic facilities and parks? Do they sponsor community events, such as an annual parade? Are there activities available for children, teenagers and senior citizens?

Your local agent, if he is a good one, will have amassed a wealth of information on these subjects of inquiry.

Schools

Even if you do not have school-age children and do not intend to have children, you must pay attention to the local school system. That is because when you sell the property, many of your potential buyers will have concerns of this nature.

You will want to know if the local schools are overcrowded. Take a drive around and see if there are auxiliary trailers outside the local schools. Call up the local school district and see if elementary aged children always attend the school closest to their home. If not, ask why. Are there enough schools to support the local population? If not, are there plans to build new schools? How will building new schools affect local property taxes?

You should also check to see how local students score on the standardized tests. You can ask your agent about these things, but you should also get the local phone numbers so you can ask yourself.

I provide comparable school reports for free on my website at www.RobMakesItSold.com

Property Taxes

Property taxes may be higher in one town than another nearby city. This can sometimes affect whether potential homebuyers view a community as a desirable place to live. Often, they will choose not to purchase in a community with higher taxes, though this decision is not always justified. Higher property taxes often mean newer and more modern schools, well-maintained roads, and bountiful community services.

In addition, you will often find that the "cost per square foot" of homes is lower in cities that have higher property taxes. This means you can buy a bigger house for less money. It may make sense to compare the total cost of owning a home. That is, to determine the monthly costs you can add the cost of a monthly mortgage and add the pro-rated cost of taxes. If resale value is important to you, make property taxes a consideration when choosing the location of your new home.

Early 2011 Waterfront Activity

2011-03-02T13:16:00.000-08:00

Early indicators are pointing to increased activity in the Fairfield Beach area in 2011. 2010 saw 8 waterfront properties change title in Fairfield, for an average sale's price of $1,427,422. 7 of these eight sales closed in the second half of 2010.
There are currently 3 direct waterfront properties under binder in the Fairfield Beach area, including two beachfront properties on Fairfield Beach road, and one other home with direct harbor views on Bayedge Court.

Southport(also part of Fairfield) had two harborfront properties sell in 2010: 211 Harbor road sold for $3,050,000; and 935 Harbor Road sold for $5,900,000.

Westport did not fare quite as well as Fairfield in the area of direct waterfront with only 3 reported sales in 2010,for an average sales price of $2,374,833. This included one riverfront property at 143 Riverside Ave. which sold for $1,100,000, one single family home in an association with shared dock at 11 Burritts Landing North ($1,750,000), and finally a home on Bermuda Lagoon with dock located at 30 Surf Road which sold for $4,274,500 ($4,695,000 asking price). There is currently one waterfront property located at 22 Cross Way (asking $4,350,000) which is under contract. One high end property on Bermuda Lagoon recently came back to the market after bindering.

An Overview from Greenwich to Fairfield shows two waterfront properties in Greenwich that are currently under contract, and none in Darien. Greenwich had only one sale recorded on the CMLS in 2010 located at 21 Willowmere Circle in the Riverside district, which sold for $5,887,500 (listed at $7,450,000). Darien actually fared
better than Greenwich with three high end sales last year: 201 Long Neck Point in Noroton sold for $5,850,000; 8 Contentment Island in Tokeneke sold for $6,350,000; and 20 Beverly Place also in Tokeneke sold for $6,300,000.

At the present time there are two Greenwich waterfront properties under contract and none in Darien.

Early Spring Update

2011-02-24T13:44:00.000-08:00

2011 has been marked in all areas by significantly low inventories in all towns. This may be due in part to the record number of snowfalls that we have had, or may also be due to potential home sellers who have decided to wait until prices move back to previous levels before listing. The result has been a very strong demand for homes that are well-priced and in excellent condition, across all price points. There are still some excellent opportunities for buyers looking for homes that may have been passed over because they have been on the market for an extended period of time.

In Westport current inventory represents 5 months of inventory versus 8.8 months at this time last year. 114 new properties have come to market year to date versus 147 last year. There are currently 29 properties under binder, and an additional 54 properties under contract. There have been 31 closed sales since Jan. 1 as compared to 29 last year at this time. The median sold price has been $1.19 m vs. 1.1m in 2010 at this time.

Weston has seen the same number of sales year to date as in 2010. Its inventory of homes on the market has decreased from 6.5 months to 5 months of inventory. The median sales price year to date has increased to $840,000 from only $740,000 compared to this time of year in 2010. There are currently 10 properties under binder, and 18 properties under contract.

Wilton also saw major reductions in inventory with only 4.1 months of inventory currently compared to 9.4 months at this time last year. There have only been 48 new properties that have come to the market compared to 71 at this time last year. Sales are up 25% over last year’s early total. The median sold price is down 6.8% from this time last year, standing currently at $825k, just a bit below Weston, which often has very similar statistics.

Fairfield has also seen a major decline in inventory, from 6.4 months at this time in 2010 to the current level of 3.9 months. There have only been 122 new properties that have come to the market compared to 261 at this time last year. There has been a marked uptick in contracted properties with 89 properties under contract now as compared to only 71 at this time last year. There are an additional 47 properties under Binder, including several over $2m, which may be an indication of a strengthening of the higher end in Fairfield, which showed signs of weakness in 2010.
Buyer demand appears to be strong.

The average days on market in all towns is significantly higher than in years past which is reflective of a large number of homes that have been on the market for more than 180 days. The months of March and April 2010 saw a sudden surge of buying interest, and early signs of activity may be forecasting a similar result.

2010 Westport,Weston, Wilton, Fairfield Overview

2010-12-31T10:54:00.000-08:00

2010 has been a bounce back year for local real estate.
Although we are not yet back to 2007 levels, all four towns
in the mid-Fairfieldarea have seen large gains in sales,
year over year. Westport continues to be the locomotive
driving higher end sales.

With its 344 sales of single family homes, Westport had
the largest percentage gain, representing an increase of 38%
over 2009 sales. 40% of those sales were under $1 million,
although there were 51 sales of homes in excess of $2 million,
including 28 sales greater than $3,000,000. The average sales
price of $1,448,806 was slightly higher than in 2009, as was
the median sales price of $1,232,500.

The third and fourth quarter sales slowed down
considerably from a fast start in the initial two quarters,
but several high end sales in the final two months of the
year brought up yearly averages, and the pipeline of future
sales(51 properties that are currently under escrow)has
increased considerably, leading one to speculate that first
quarter 2011 sales will see solid advances over 2010 first
quarter single family sales which totaled 36.

In Westport there appears to be pent up demand,
especially in the middle band lower end of the market.
Several recent offerings in these price ranges garnered
multiple offers.

The condominium market in Westport also saw gains in
activity, with 28 sales in 2010 vs. 23 in 2009. Sales
prices have decreased approximately 9% during the same
period. Properties with outdated kitchens and baths were
negatively impacted in their sales prices. Buyers, for
both condominiums and single family homes, continue to
have a preference for properties that are in ‘move-in’
condition.

Higher taxes in both Weston & Wilton have been
influential in holding back sales prices. 73 of the 118
sales in Weston and 114 of the 163 sales in Wilton were
for under $ 1 million, with the vast majority of those
sales under $900,000. Fairfield saw a great increase
in demand on the lower end of its market. 491 of the 589
passing title, or 83% of its sales were well under $1
million. The largest number of these sales fell into the
$400,000-500,000 range.Contrastly, the higher end of the
market saw fewer sales in 2010.

Inventory levels in all towns have decreased over
2009 levels, driven by increased sales. Marketing time
figures have been skewed by certain properties that have
been on the market for extended periods of time.
Quality of construction,layout, design and fixtures
continues to drive sales in all price ranges.

2010 Average & Median Sales Prices Sales Prices

Average Sales Price Median Sales Price

Westport $1,448,806 $1,232,500
Weston $ 929,994 $822,000

Wilton $ 880,803 $815,000

Fairfield $ 682,097 $527,000

The Insider's View October 2011

2010-11-05T13:51:00.001-07:00

October 2010
The Insider’s View

Activity in Mid-Fairfield County had mixed results in October. All towns continue to see improvements over year-to-date results compared with 2009 but economic and political uncertainty seemed to have slowed down the momentum of the early part of the year. The remaining months of the year may give us an indication of what the spring 2011 market will bring.
The perception remains that the market remains a buyer’s market despite gains in number of sales and increases in Median sales prices. Inventory has not dropped as much as one would have hoped. Most sellers have remained fairly firm in their prices, with notable exceptions.

Overall though this is a much improved market over the previous two years. Here is the breakdown by towns:

Westport- October saw a general slowdown in Westport. Only 29 homes went to escrow vs. 31 in Oct. 2009, however the median sold price in October increased to $1.41 million. Year to date vs. 2009 there has been an increase of 48.9% of properties selling. Inventory remains high in part because of high end properties which are taking longer to sell. The greatest amount of activity has been occurring for properties selling under $1,300,000 with 2/3 of 2010 sales falling into this category. However, the second highest residential property closing ($20,000,000) in Westport’s history occurred on October 29.

Weston- The lower end of the Weston market has been its driving force. Properties going to escrow have increased by 43% over 2009 year to date, and inventory is down slightly. The median sold price is up to $832,000.

Wilton- Wilton has also seen a preponderance of activity on the lower end of the market. 50% of 2010 sales have been under $850,000. Unlike Westport and Weston, October was a very good month for Wilton, with 22 properties going to escrow vs. only 7 in the previous month, though inventory increased by 11.6%.

Fairfield- Fairfield has seen 2010 sales increase by 34.4%, but the median price is now down to $525,000, a decrease of 7.9%. This is a good indication of the activity in entry level properties in Fairfield. In October there were 60 properties that went under escrow vs. 41 in September. Of note: one home in Greenfield Hill going under escrow in October, listed at $7,500,000.

2010 Mid-Fairfield Real Estate Statistics thru Sept. 30

2010-10-01T13:43:00.000-07:00

We continued to work our way back to sales that are more in line with statistical averages in the 3rd quarter but results were less sanguine than previously seen in the first half of the year. There was a marked slowdown in real estate activity in late April, May and June which coincided with the debt crisis in Greece, Spain and Portugal, and the oil spill in the Gulf.

Fortunately we appear to have gotten through those crises, and the stock market saw its strongest September gain since 1939. Questions still remain for some about the U.S. economy, and real estate buyers are still expressing some of that uncertainty, even though the latest Case-Schiller index indicated a rise in prices for the New York Metro area.

Westport sales of single family homes through Sept.30 totaled 269 vs. 174 in 2009, an increase of 54%. An additional 61 homes are currently under escrow. The monthly supply of inventory dropped from 16.4 months to 9.6 months, which is a reflection of sales of existing inventory. Actual inventory levels are down slightly from 2009 levels. The average sales price increased 1% to $1,393,604.

Weston sales continued to increase in the whole, from 63 in 2009 to 88 thus far in 2010, an increase of 40%. An additional 20 properties are under escrow. Average sales figures increased over 3% to $952,698, still lagging considerably averages that were seen before the turn in real estate prices. Two thirds of the activity has been below $1 million.

Wilton, with many similarities to its neighbor Weston, has been relatively less successful in terms of sales, with the smallest percentage increase (12.7%) in year to date sales activity: 127 closed sales compared to 102 in 2009 at this time. It also saw a slight drop ($20,000) in the average sales price to $885,340. There are an additional 24 properties under escrow.

Fairfield sales figures are also showing a positive balance sheet, with a 35% increase over year to date 2009 sales, with 468 single family homes sales recorded, and an additional 94 properties under escrow. However, the average sales price decreased 4% to $690,267. The bulk of sales (67%+) were under $700,000.

The highest compliment my clients can give me is the referral of their friends, family and business associates.

Statistical data compiled from Consolidated Multiple Listing Service

New York City Recession Less Severe than National Average

2010-08-30T11:54:00.000-07:00

Just read an article in Crain's New York with some interesting statistics. Though this is certainly a serious recession, and many people have been directly affected, it may not be as severe as one would assume, listening to gloom and doom media reports.

The 18-Month Recession

From the time the recession hit the city in August 2008 until hiring resumed in December 2009, the city lost 184,500 jobs, a 4.8% decrease. It fared far better than the U.S. as a whole, which lost 8.4 million jobs, a decrease of 7.3%.

Industry's Revenue Stars

Despite the financial meltdown, the 10 city institutions with the most revenues brought in over 10% more in '09 than in '05. However, only six institutions from the earlier list remain.

So there is definitely change afoot, and there is definitely need for an overhaul of both financial and governmental sectors with true accountability, and more clarity.

August Real Estate Update/Westport, CT.

2010-08-30T08:26:00.000-07:00

August 2010 Real Estate Update
‘Keeping it Real’

In light of today’s news about a major drop in U.S. home sales , I wanted to weigh in on what I think is an inaccurate picture of what is happening, at least in terms of local real estate.

For the sake of simplicity I decided to look at recent sales in Westport and make some comparisons between June and July, 2010 (which was the basis of the figures used in today’s housing report), and to get a better understanding of the bigger picture, to also look at the figures for June and July 2009 sales.

It is also important to keep in mind, and I have not heard this cited anywhere yet, that July is typically a month that has fewer sales than June. Also in this particular year, the $8000 first time home buyer tax credit expired on June 30, 2010, and that deadline created a larger than usual number of sales in June. Therefore it should not have been totally unexpected that there would be a comparative drop-off in July in terms of national real estate. In terms of local real estate, the $8000 tax credit had a much smaller impact in Fairfield County than it did in many parts of the country due to the higher real estate values.

In June, 2010 there were 49 sales of single family homes in Westport. The following month in July there were 51 sales, or an increase of 4%. In June of 2009 there were 29 sales compared to 49 this year. In July 2009 there 49 sales compared to 51 this year. Again an increase of 4%.

Despite uncertainties about our economy there are currently 37 properties under binder. This is an indication of current activity. It does represent less activity than in July, but August typically has less activity than does July. There are also an additional 49 properties currently under contract.

The year to date sales total 265 in Westport. This compares very favorably to 164 sales at this point last year. In fact if we add on the existing bindered and pending sales to year to date sales this totals 371 sales compared to 284 total sales for all of 2009. That is in and of itself 31% more sales than in 2009, and there is one quarter of the year left.

2010 mid-year Real Estate statistics

2010-07-03T10:04:00.000-07:00

Mid-Fairfield Real Estate Statistics*
January-June 2010
The area of Mid-Fairfield county includes the towns of Westport, Weston, Wilton and Fairfield. Since the majority of sales historically occur during the first 6 months of a calendar year, the results of this period are a telling indication of what the year will bring.

The improvement seen in the first quarter of 2010 continued in the second quarter in all 4 towns that are included in this survey. Past experience has shown that the town of Westport is the leading indicator of values. Projected 2010 Westport sales (including properties under contract) has already well surpassed 2009 closed sales. Year to date sales are 141 sales vs. 87 at this time last year, or an increase of 61%. The 221 properties that are currently under escrow represents a 95% increase over the same period last year. The median sold price increased 1.3% over the same time period last year. Most sought after price range is $1,350,000 and below.

The town of Weston has seen the largest improvement in the past year. Its closed sales are up 93.3% year to date, with 58 closed sales vs. 30 last year. The 75 properties under escrow represents a jump of 117%, and the number of new properties for sale has decreased 5.5% over the same time last year. The decrease in the median price of 5.5% is an indication of activity in the lower end of the Weston market, at $899,000 and below.

The town of Fairfield is the largest and most diverse in terms of demographics and housing stock. The number of closed sales has climbed from 180 to 292 over the same period last year, or an increase of 62.2%. The number of properties under escrow has also increased, from 236 to 390, or an increase of 65.3%. The median price decrease of 6.3% may be reflective of the number of entry level sales, which can be attributed in part to government first time home buyer incentives. The most sought after price range in Fairfield has been $899,000 and below, with a preponderance of sales below $600,000.

Wilton has also seen a nice increase in sales compared with 2009, up 54.5%, with 85 closed sales vs. 55 in 2009 ytd. Wilton and Weston have similar demographics, though Wilton has a more diverse housing stock. A comparison of the average sales prices between those towns is practically identical in 2010. The number of properties under escrow, an increase of 57.6% though sizeable, is below that of Weston, indicating that current activity in Weston is greater.

First Quarter 2010 Westport and Vicinity

2010-04-07T10:37:00.000-07:00

The first quarter of 2010 saw a marked improvement over the same period of time in 2009. There were 53 sales in Westport during this time period versus 28 the previous year. This represents an 89% increase. The highest sale was for a property located at 279 North Avenue for $8,187,500. The lowest sale was $358,500 for a home located at 21 Oakview Circle. The average listed price for these properties was $1,430,574 and the average sales price was $1,331,806, representing 93% of the asking price.

The average sales price actually decreased this quarter from the same period of time last year, which as $1,457,906. However, new inventory of properties in 2010 now represents 7.6 months of inventory, whereas the inventory of homes in the first quarter of 2009 represented 17.7 months of inventory. These two figures are based upon the number of sales in the previous year. That is to say that the health of the market is considerably better in 2010 than it was in 2009. In addition, the average days on market (number of days before a property goes to contract) decreased by 38 days to 104 days, a 26.8% decrease. Moreover, there are currently 62 single family homes under contract versus 36 at this time last year. The average listed price of these homes is $1,562,948 indicating a shift towards higher priced properties in the second quarter.

Condominium sales were relatively soft in the first quarter with only 3 sales registered, but there are currently 7 condominium properties under contract. The average list price of these units is $444,557, indicating an early trend toward the lower end of the condominium market. There are currently excellent opportunities in the higher end of the condo market, so we may see a shift later on in the year based on pent up demand.

Neighboring towns Weston and Wilton have also seen marked improvement during the first quarter of 2010. Weston had sales of 25 homes during the first quarter versus only 9 during the same period in 2009. Wilton had 22 sales vs. 14 in 2009. There are currently 31 homes under contract in Weston and 33 in Wilton, both signs of an increasingly healthy real estate market.

Ides of March Update 2010

2010-03-11T15:04:00.000-08:00

We are continuing to get a clearer picture of this 2010 Spring Market. Well-priced listings are selling well below average market times, and there are occasional multiple offer situations such as one recently in Weston, which will sell for nearly $50,000 over its asking price.

A quick overview of the situation in Westport, Weston, Wilton and Fairfield shows that the monthly supply of inventory in all of these towns is down dramatically, with a decrease of 65.6% in Westport. There has been a slight increase in new listings, but this is due to the fact that the likelihood a home selling has increased.

The Closed sales year to date compared to 2009 at this same time have also increased in a very
impressive way. Westport is up 100%, Weston +133.3%, Wilton +85.7%, and Fairfield +110.8%.

In addition, the most recent activity represented by homes that have gone to contract has also made a steady upswing. Figures for the towns are: Westport +187%, Weston +337.5%, Wilton+184.6%, and Fairfield +106.5%.

The large jumps in both Weston and Wilton are somewhat reflective of lower sales in those towns in 2009.

The number of days on market has also decreased in all 4 towns, especially in Westport with a decrease of 45.6%, nearly halving the time it is taking to sell a home. The higher end of the market has made some impressive steps in Westport, while Weston, Wilton and Fairfield have seen much slower activity in the higher end.

2010-02-23T13:07:00.000-08:00

Sales have remained relatively even for 2009. Higher than usual activity in the higher end ($1 million) during the 4th quarter may be a signal of things to come in 2010. The average listing prices of homes currently under contract is signficantly above 2009 yearly averages in all towns except for Wilton.

Mortgage rates remain at historic lows and the conventional loan limit of $708,500 has been extended to 2010 for the time being. Demand should be high for homes listed at $1,200,000 and below.

Pricing has been particularly attractive to buyers for homes listed below $900,000 in Weston & Wilton. 123 of the 210 sales in 2009 in those towns fell into this range. Activity under $900,000 in Westport and Fairfield has also had the effect of lowering the average sales prices and the median prices.

Listing inventory throughout Fairfield County has decreased markedly from the highs seen in 2007, and this had been true in Mid-Fairfield as well.

My new association with the Riverside Realty Group was based upon the company's unique team approach and innovative marketing techniques. In a matter of just over 2 years, the Riverside Realty Group has gained the preeminent leadership position and the highest per agent production of any real estate agency in the area.

For additional Market Trend statistics please feel free to visit my website at www.RobMakesItSold.com. For a FREE price opinion on the value of your home, please call me at 203-952-6117.

The Only Thing we Have to Fear is Fear Itself

2008-10-04T07:03:00.000-07:00

Americans seem to have short term memory loss. Do you remember when, after the attacks on 9/11, many of us feared that the world as we knew it was coming to an end? Those same sentiments abounded in October 1987 after the Stock Market Crash, and of course Franklin D. Roosevelt (who coined the phrase) understood it after the attack on Pearl Harbor.

What strikes me is that we often lose sight of the big picture, and we have to keep that in mind when looking at real estate. When values were increasing by huge leaps and bounds over the past decade, why didn't we say 'this is not sustainable'? I often shook my head as homes sold for well over their asking price, and I must confess that though I did have those thoughts I felt helpless to do anything about it. As a seller's agent it benefited the owners that I represented. As a buyer's agent I always tried to explain to my buyers that it was important not to be carried away by frills, and to remember that real estate is always about location. It is always about fundamentals, not about using fear to motivate, for lest we forget, for every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction.

We have now seen buyers and sellers reverse roles, with buyers having unreasonable expectations much as sellers had them in the past.
We now have the opportunity to speak to both buyers and sellers about the long term benefits of owning a home and point to long term statistics, and to remind them that we are returning to 'normalcy'. On average homes will appreciate about 5% per year. Sometimes this will be ahead of the stock market and sometimes not. Throughout the time that we own our homes we will not only have mortgage interest deductions but will be able to enjoy the pleasures of Thanksgiving and Christmas dinners, special family events, entertaining guests, and the simple pleasures of watching our trees and gardens grow.

Now that we have a new law passed that will help to calm some of those fears, let's not lose sight of the fundamentals.

Have we reached bottom?

2008-04-27T20:13:00.000-07:00

Recent National Association of Realtor statistics indicate that the number of sales of U.S. existing homes rose slightly in February for the first time since July 2007. That begs the question of whether we have reached the bottom of this real estate correction.

Just as with the stock market there is not likely to be a clear indicator of when the real estate market has reached its low until we are past it. When I speak to my clients, I usually indicate two things. The first is that all real estate is local, meaning that what is going on in places like Florida and Arizona is not indicative of what is happening in Fairfield County, Connecticut. The second is that real estate, like the stock market, usually follows cycles.

In the past these cycles have been measured in roughly ten year time periods. Following that logic, and looking backward two decades, one could say that the real estate market rebounded from a laggard period in the early 70s with a rebound in about 1979 and saw large increases slightly beyond the stock market downturn in October 1987 until 1989. There was a correction in 1989-90 and then flattened for a few years until incremental increases began in 1991-93. Beginning in about 1994 increases started in single digits and rose to double digit amounts in about 1998 through 2006.

The stock market usually is a precursor of what will happen in the real estate market. If we look back three years to the spring of 2005, the stock market stood at about 12,200 (Dow Jones Industrials). Despite fluctuations, the stock market has pretty much lingered at those same levels since. Will the stock market see increases later this year? Typically that is what occurs after Presidential elections, and there are several stock market analysts who believe that the market is poised for a mini-surge to levels above 13,000 later this year, especially with continued low unemployment and relatively strong figures in durable goods, and low mortgage rates.

Part of the reason that there has been a slowdown in real estate sales is that despite decreases in the Fed rate, the banks have not followed suit by lowering rates. This means that in comparison to rates of 5.5% three years ago, versus 6.25% today, the cost of purchasing a home (if the cost of homes remained the same) would have increased by 12%. This corresponds approximately to the correction that the real estate market has seen in our values (despite average sales price increases due to sales in the high end). This has had the effect of having many buyers waiting on the sidelines for prices to fall further. If the mortage rates returned to those 5.5% levels, buyers whose buying power has not increased in the past three years would have that extra incentive to buy.

So we may in fact be in the flattening period that corresponds to the years '91-93 mentioned above. If that were true, expect real estate prices to start slowly increasing again late this year or in early 2009.

1st Quarter 2008 Statistics

2008-03-31T14:20:00.000-07:00

There are some surprises in the first quarter statistics for 2008.

Although most towns saw a marked decrease in average sales prices, Westport actually saw a marked increase. The average 1st quarter sales price for a single family homes was $1,814,721 vs. $ 1,482,415. On the units side, there were 43 homes sold vs. 56 in the first quarter of 2007.

Weston also saw an increase in average sales price, from $1,106,789 in 2007 to $1,318,031 in 2008's first quarter. Unit sales were off slightly from 19 in 2007 to 16 in 2008.

Both Wilton and Fairfield saw marked decreases in their average sales price. Wilton's average fell to $1,067,231 from $1,123,672 in 2007 and Fairfield dropped to $715,266
from $ 849,609 in 2007. Both of these figures are an indication of increased sales under $1 million. Unit figures also decreased in both towns, down from 33 to 26 in Wilton, and 134 to 103 in Fairfield, the largest drop of all 4 towns in the Mid-Fairfield region.

January/February Property Transfers

2008-03-04T06:23:00.000-08:00

For the sake of simplicity I have included all sales (single family, condos, land, comm.) as a group to get a quick overview of a short period of time. This two month period is not necessarily an indicator of what will happen over a 12 month period, yet does give some insights about possible trends.

I have also combined Westport and Weston as one group. This is not an indicator that values in the two towns are equal. I have done so because they are sister towns. I will separate sales of the two towns, as I have done in the past, over longer periods of time to more accurately evaluate statistics.

Property Transfers Westport/Weston Jan-Feb. 2008

During the same period in 2007 the results were very similar; 11 sales in Weston vs. 12 in ’08, and 35 in Westport vs. 32 in ’08. However, the average sales prices were considerably higher in ’08 vs. ’07 $1,798,250 vs. $1,383,511.
This is an indication that the higher end, i.e., over $1 million, has been experiencing more sales than the lower end.

Property Transfers Fairfield January/February

The results in Fairfield, unlike Westport and Weston show a greater disparity from 2007 to 2008. 2007 sales in Fairfield totalled 114 vs. only 71 in 2008. In both cases the vast majority of these sales were under $1 million. The average sales prices were strikingly similar, $722,937 in 2007 vs. $715, 986 in 2008. However, the 2007 sales included 3 sales over $5 million, which if excluded would indicate that prices have actually risen over the past year.

The average list to sale average was also practically identical $756,466 in '07 and $715,986 in '08, meaning that list to sales prices represented just under 95% in both cases. What did change was the average marketing time. In 2007 it was 64 days compared to 100 days in 2008.

Wilton January/February Property Transfers

In Wilton there is a dropoff similar to Fairfield. For this two month period in 2007 there were 28 sales compared to 19 in 2008. The average listing and sales prices declined slightly over the past year. Average list prices declined from $1,157,300 in 2007 to $1,135,363 in 2007 with average sales prices declining from $1,104,603 in '07 to $1,068,763 in '08. Average marketing times increased from 117 days for homes that sold during this period in '07 to 133 days in '08.

These figures reflect marketing conditions in the end of the previous years, i.e., Fall 2006 and Fall 2007. Following up at two month intervals with help to see what the trends are for the current year.

2007 Fairfield Market Statistics and Overview

2008-02-25T13:29:00.000-08:00

Fairfield year end 2007 single family sales totalled 766 vs. 656 in 2006, representing an increase of 17%. Although 'high end' sales were also up in Fairfield, the average sales price of $889,866 ( average listing price $ 927,357) is an indication of the large inventory of affordable housing in Fairfield. This average represents an increase of 8% in sales prices over 2006. The listing to sales ratio between 2006 and 2007 was practically identical, 95.79% vs. 95.95%. Also noteworthy is the fact that the marketing time of 97 days compares very favorably to the average 0f 107 days in Westport, though this is also higher than at the height of the market.

Currently there are 402 single family homes for sale in Fairfield. The number of 'high end' listings represents a much smaller percentage of the market than in Westport for example.
There are 43 homes over $2 million in Fairfield vs. 128 in Westport. Keep in mind also that the population of Fairfield is approximately double that of Westport. Fairfield had 50 sales over $2 million vs. 119 in Westport in 2007. Based on the current inventory vs. 2007 sales, Fairfield has approximately 11 months of 'high end' inventory vs. 13 months in Westport.

Current activity reflects trends similar to 2007. Fairfield currently has 81 homes either under contract or bindered vs. 42 in Westport. Of these homes 17 in Fairfield are listed at over $1 million vs. 30 in Westport.

2007 Year End Westport Statistics and Overview

2008-02-25T12:28:00.000-08:00

When trying to understand the trends in the Mid-Fairfield area Westport tends to be the best guide because of its consistency. For example, 2006 single family home sales totalled 400 and in 2007 that total was 403. While the numbers of sale was almost identical, the average sales price went up 5.86% to $1,692,006 with an average listing price of $1, 760,315. Homes sold at 96.61% which was actually slightly better than the 95.61% of 2006. Of note is the fact that the marketing time increased from 97 in 2006 to 108 days in 2007. What is not calculated in those figures are the homes that did not sell. In 2006 there were 254 expired listings and almost the same figure reappeared in 2007 with 254.

There has been a definite trend in terms of the aforementioned expired listings. From 2003 until 2007 this was the progression: 185, 164, 218, 258, 254. This does not include other listings which may have been cancelled. What these figures do not indicate are the trend of what is selling. The tendency there is for homes that are in 'move in' condition to be much more likely to sell than those that are in need of updating.

The other trend is that the 'higher end' of the market is selling more than the 'lower end'. In 2007 more than two thirds (273) of the homes in Westport sold for over $1 million. 79 of these homes were sold for over $ 2 million, and more than half (42) sold for over $ 3 million. Under $1 million there were 130 sales. It is noteworthy that a number of these homes under $1 million sold at prices that were below what their value would have been in say 2005.

There are currently 285 homes on the market in Westport which is approximately 30% above the ten year average for this time of year, but below levels of the past couple of years. This seems to indicate that sellers are less likely to sell their homes than at the height of the market. There are only 68 homes under $1 million currently for sale.

Do the Wealthy Know something that the Media Doesn't know?

2007-10-17T10:52:00.000-07:00

Here in Westport and other destination towns in the metropolitan area there has been a trend that would seem to go against what certain television and news media are reporting. Those reports are indicating that the real estate market has not reached its bottom, and in the case of Jim Cramer the implication was that only fools would buy in this market.

Well, apparently many of the very knowledgeable financial services people who make up a healthy portion of our population don't seem to agree.

To give some indication I decided to look at homes in the 'high end', say over $2,000,000 that have sold during the past two years in this area of Fairfield County. In Westport, Weston, Fairfield these numbers have increased dramatically in the past year. Year to date (Oct.17) comparing 2006 to 2007 here are the numbers:
Westport Weston Wilton Fairfield

2006 80 15 21 21
2007 96 22 21 39

The only town that did not have increased 'high end' sales was Wilton, but for some reason this has been an off year for Wilton.

To have a more accurate assessment of what is happening, one should also look at what is happening for example under $1,000,000. The following are the results in that category:

Westport Weston Wilton Fairfield

2006 106 59 121 418
2007 105 68 104 497

Lastly, to get the whole picture let's look at the range of $1,000,000-2,000,000:

Westport Weston Wilton Fairfield

2006 154 49 77 99
2007 140 49 63 133

Now we have a clearer idea of what the gains and losses have been. Westport has seen the largest number of sales in the 'high end' in both 2006 and 2007. Sales under $2,000,000 have been off slightly, approximately in equal numbers to the gains in the high end.

Fairfield, with far and away the largest population and the largest inventory, has remained the leader in 'affordable' sales, and Fairfield has also seen a large increase in sales in all categories observed.

Wilton, as I indicated briefly above has lost sales under $2,000,000. They have remained steady in the high end (over $2,000,000), but have not seen advances.

Weston has seen slow but steady gains for 2007, both in the high end, and the mid-range.

Market Statistics Through August, 2007

2007-09-23T07:33:00.000-07:00

Fairfield County, and more specifically the Mid-Fairfield area towns, are not following the national averages. An overview of market statistics shows extremely strong results in both single family and condominiums. To get a better idea of what the activity has been we have compared the results of the past 3 years, 2005-2007, through the month of August.

Only Wilton, amongst the 5 towns, has not had increased activity year to date in the category of single family homes, compared with 2006.

2007 Jan. Feb. Mar. Ap. May June July August TOTAL

Wpt SF 14 7 29 48 51 64 38 44 295
Condo 2 0 2 4 5 5 4 3 25

Weston 5 5 9 17 16 21 22 19 114

Ffld SF 40 49 64 67 70 107 95 88 580
Condo 10 8 9 7 16 10 10 18 86

Nwk Sf 35 40 57 48 54 63 64 61 422
Condo 26 38 40 45 57 51 38 32 327

Wilton 15 10 12 24 20 37 27 25 170
Condo 1 1 1 4 1 6 3 4 21

2006
Wpt Sf 23 34 40 27 37 44 38 47 290
Condo 5 1 5 2 3 5 0 4 25

Weston 4 4 11 9 13 27 20 13 101

Ffld SF 37 38 67 35 53 105 67 74 476
Condo 3 5 12 5 16 14 14 16 85

Nwk SF 36 42 67 53 84 73 71 78 504
Condo 30 27 53 38 53 72 56 56 385

Wilton SF 13 11 22 23 19 43 43 29 203
Condo 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 0 14

2005
Wpt SF 27 27 14 50 47 44 61 56 326
Condo 2 2 2 1 5 3 2 3 20

Weston 11 7 13 8 21 25 25 24 134

Ffld SF 63 43 37 52 70 126 114 96 601
Condo 12 12 9 13 13 21 8 19 107

Nwlk Sf 55 41 67 77 80 90 102 107 619
Condo 38 27 46 37 45 70 52 78 393

Wilton 21 16 11 25 25 49 34 49 230
Condo 1 3 1 4 4 1 4 6 24

New Construction Update

2007-09-01T08:40:00.000-07:00

Earlier this year we noted that the new construction inventory represented slightly more than the equivalent of the previous year's sales of new homes. Year to date there have been a total of 53 new homes sold (including those that are currently under contract) in Westport. This compares favorably with 2006 results.

There are currently 58 homes that have already been built that are currently on the market, plus an additional 12 homes that have not yet broken ground. Between now and the remainder of this year I would expect that a number of these homes with go under contract. There continues to be activity in this sector. For example, a new home that had only been marketed for 2 months at $3,395,000 just accepted an offer in the last couple of days, and there have been numerous showings of new homes under this price point.

Based on the homes that have already sold this year, 2008 will most likely have a one year's inventory of homes for sale in Westport. There are currently 10 homes for sale which were built in 2006. It will be important to watch and see what happens to these homes. Many of these, are in the range over $3,000,000. To this point some of these have been reduced, but not dramatically.

Sales to date have generally been within 5% of the final asking price. The strength in the market for new construction has been under $3,000,000. The average price for new construction has been increasing beyond the average for the market. We will update these figures at year's end to see how this year compares to 2006.

New Construction Activity

2007-06-11T06:20:00.000-07:00

There was concern amongst builders in the fall of 2006 of the quantity of new homes being built in the mid-Fairfield area and beyond. At one point last year New Canaan had nearly 50% of its inventory comprised of new construction. That situation has changed dramatically with new construction now representing just over 26% of New Canaan listings. It is worth noting, however that the average listing price there is $ 4,393,078.

In Westport there are currently 74 new homes on the market, representing 21.5% of the current inventory. Based on the number of sales of new homes in 2006, this represents approx-
imately 8 months of inventory with an average asking price of $ 2,963,558. Year to date there have been 27 sales and there are an additional 15 properties under contract. We will be watching this inventory closely in the coming months to see if there is additional activity, or if these properties will sit on the market until next spring. As things currently stand Westport has been percentage wise the most active of the 4 towns in Mid-Fairfield. We have already started to see greater flexibility in the final sales prices. That being said, the average sales price of new construction continues to rise higher than the average sales prices. This is due to the increased sales prices of raw land, or homes being knocked down.

Fairfield is in next position in terms of new construction inventory with 95 new homes representing 16.4% of its inventory. Based on 2006 sales (79), this represents 11+ months of inventory. The average asking price is $ 1,652,100, by far the lowest in the area. Thirty-five of these homes are under $1,000,000, making Fairfield the most affordable arena for new construction. 34 sales have been recorded year to date, with 20 additional properties under contract.

Wilton's 26 new construction listings out of 199 total listings represent 14%. The average listing price of these homes is $ 2,431,838. 2007 sales have been far from brisk, however. There have been only 7 sales in 2007, with 4 additional properties under contract. The current inventory represents 25+ months of activity based on 2006 sales.

Lastly, Weston's inventory of 26 new homes (the same as Wilton's), represents 48+ months of inventory based on 2006 sales of 6 new homes. The asking price of these homes is just slightly less than the Westport figures at $ 2,939,271. There have been 4 new homes sold in Weston year to date. Weston has the largest new subdivision being built.

Concerns of oversupply are especially noteworthy in Weston, though builders in Weston tend to be patient than their counterparts in neighboring towns. Since the 2007 market has been slower than that of 2006 in some towns in Mid-Fairfield we shall continue to watch overall figures as well as New Construction figures.

A Change in Course

2007-05-22T13:18:00.000-07:00

The spring market has started to heat up this year but not in all the places that one might have expected.

The winners so far in 2007 seem to be Weston and Fairfield at the expense of Westport and Wilton.

Sales year to date in Westport total 127 compared to 151 in 2006 which translates to a falloff of approximately 16%. This is certainly an improvement over the first quarter. In Wilton the decrease is nearly 18% with only 69 sales so far compared to 85 at this time last year.

Part of the explanation lies in a slow start due to late snow in March followed by heavy rains. It is also a reflection of a slower start in the months of January and February.

That said, Fairfield and Weston have fared better than in 2006. Weston with 48 sales is up 33%, while Fairfield with 267 sales is up 27%.

Pending and Bindered sales in all of the towns show signs of increased activity with nearly as many properties falling into these categories as have closed thus far in 2007.

We will follow the progress of these Off-Market properties on a monthly basis.

First Quarter 2007 Mid-Fairfield Statistics

2007-04-03T05:26:00.000-07:00

Rob Grodman & Associates
www.RobMakesItSold.com
westportagent@hotmail.com
203-952-6117

The first quarter sales of 2007 in Mid-Fairfield county reflected continued concerns in the overall real estate market amongst buyers, and somewhat unrealistic values of sellers. The result was a sluggish quarter that saw decreases in number of sales in most towns along with average sales price.

In Westport the number of sales dropped from 97 for this quarter in 2006 to 56 during the same first three months of 2007. This number is more representative of a continuation of the somber 4th quarter of 2006 than a strict comparison with the first quarter of ’06 which counted a certain number of sales that came about by the enthusiasm of the late 2005 market.

These numbers represent a 42% reduction in sales in Westport, which was the hardest hit in percentage terms of the four towns that we will examine today. Especially noteworthy is the drop in the average sales price in Westport, which went from $1,744,436 in the first quarter of ’06 to $1,482,415 in ’07, a drop of 15%. This would seem to follow the loss pattern of approximately 1% per month since April of 2006.

Of the 72 pending sales in Westport, 56 are over $1,000,000. Clearly the $1,000,000 house can no longer be considered part of the ‘high-end’ in Westport. The average sales price was slightly over 94% of asking price, which is a fractional fall off from previous years when a list to sales ratio of 95.5%-96% was most common.

The sister town of Weston followed a more steady progression than its southern neighbor. Sales for the quarter were 19 compared to the exact same number in ’06. 24 pending sales were slightly below expectations when compared to the size of the Westport market, since Weston’s population is approximately 39% of Westport’s.
13 of these 24 pending sales were of homes listed for more than $1,000,000, representing a much lower percentage than in Westport. The average sales price in Weston dropped from $1,279,763 in 2006 to $1,106,789 in 2007.

The inventory in all towns was slightly lower at this time than last year. This is a positive sign, given that some of this inventory has been carried over from 2006. We will need to watch the inventory in the coming month to see if the number of listings will follow the same curve as in 2006 or remain closer to average yearly numbers. The 138 current listings in Weston compares to 143 in the beginning of the second quarter of 2006, for example.

Wilton saw a 18% fall-off in first quarter sales, with sales dropping in 2007 to 33 compared to 46 in the 1st quarter of ’06. The average sales price also dropped, from $1,193,196 in 2006 to $1,123,672 in 2007. I don’t like to emphasize the latter statistic because we are not really comparing apples to apples. It is interesting to note though that of the current 39 pending sales 22 were over $1million. In all of the towns reviewed here the percentages seem to be mounting, and yet the average sales prices have decreased.

Last, and certainly not least, is the town of Fairfield. As the largest of the towns in the area, with a population of over 50,000, Fairfield consistently has the largest number of sales. 1st quarter sales were at 134 in 2007 down from 142 in 2006 (a 6% drop). Fairfield is generally the most consistent of the towns with the largest percentage of homes sold under $1,000,000. The average sales price in the first quarter of 2006 stood at $810,229, whereas it was $849,609 in the first quarter of 2007, the only town to see a price increase.

Of the 107 pending sales in Fairfield, only 33 are over $1million. With a large number of homes that are relatively affordable, Fairfield has an active market.

Interest rates continue to remain very low, and indications are that they will remain so, which is a positive aspect not to be forgotten. Showings of existing homes on the market have recently been increasing, leading one to believe that we may be seeing the beginning signs of a more active second quarter. Buyers are now realizing that it is an excellent time to be purchasing a house in our towns.

2006 Year End Newsletter

2007-01-02T12:05:00.000-08:00

Mid-Fairfield Real Estate Update
2006 Statistics
GRODMAN & Assoc.
www.RobMakesItSold.com
westportagent@hotmail.com
203-952-6117

Reading between the lines. Due to certain technical difficulties beyond my blogging abilities, I was unable to place 3 Excel graphs on this blog. If you are interested in having the full newsletter kindly email me at westportagent@hotmail.com, and I will send it to you in Adobe Reader format.

It is clear from the above chart that 2006 was not a
banner year. All three towns in our Mid-Fairfield Area have seen a loss in terms of numbers
of sales. Westport’s Sales numbered 374 in 2006 compared to 471 sales representing
the smallest loss of the three towns: -21%. It is interesting to note that compared to
2003 (the 3rd best year in Real Estate sales), 2006 had only 24 fewer sales, or 94% of that
total.
o
Weston’s performance was the most disappointing. The 128 sales, year-to-date, represent
a 28% drop-off from last year’s 178 sales. Weston had been striking in its consistency of
sales between 2003 and 2005, with totals of 187,191,and 178, respectively. 2005’s totals
were a slight decrease from 2004, but a far cry from the decrease seen in the past year.
Increased real estate taxes due to school improvement projects have probably been
influential. Due its smaller size, the 50 sale lossin Weston appears at first sight to be
monumental, yet all three towns experienced at least a 20% decrease from the previous
year.

The average sales price chart is one that tells several different, and sometimes contradictory
stories. In the case of Westport, the average rose a little more than 13% from 2005 to 2006.
The current average sales price is now at $1,614,052. This should not be interpreted that the
average home increased 13% in Westport during past year. The figures in Westport have
been skewed by a much higher percentage of ‘high-end’ homes selling in 2006. A truer representation
can be seen when homes that were purchased and resold in the past year or so are
looked at. In several of these cases, homes actually sold in some cases for less than what was
paid in 2005. Average sales figures in Weston may be more emblematic of what has occurred
in the past year.
In Weston, the average sales figure dropped approximately 5% over the past year. The average
sales figure of $1,218,767 may be more accurate than the figure for Westport because
there have been fewer ‘high-end’ sales as a percentage of total sales than in Westport. The
inventory of housing stock in Weston is also more consistent than in Westport.
Fairfield represents the largest and most diverse market. The average sales price of
$863,374 is also a more accurate indication of the large number of sales under $1 million in
Fairfield. However, the 9% increase in 2006 vs. 2005 is not justified for the same reasons
previously mentioned. Though representing a smaller percentage of sales, Fairfield also saw
a higher than previously recorded number of sales over $2,000,000.

Just a very brief word about Average Marketing time. These times would appear to be tantalizingly consistent over the past 4 years. In fact, if one were to believe these figures, Weston’s marketing time appears to have decreased during 2006 from all previous years. The reason that these figures are totally inaccurate can be seen by looking at the average marketing times of all the properties currently for sale in Westport, for example, which is at nearly 120 days, whereas the average marketing time for sold properties is listed as being 97 days. That is because these figures do not take into account nearly half of the listings which have not sold.
Looking ahead to 2007. Although no one is sure of what will happen in the upcoming year, recent sales activity in both Westport and Fairfield has been more vibrant than expected. The
differences in that activity are worth noting. In Fairfield there are 38 properties under
binder and 61 pending sales. The average of those bindered sales is $681,003 and the average
of the pending sales in $949,587. Most of the Fairfield activity has been characteristic
of its sales base.

The Westport recent activity has been a bit different. There are 23 properties under
binder, for an average price of $1,715,230. The 32 properties under contract average
$2,108,469. This activity in the higher end may be a precursor in 2007 for the type of
‘bonus’ activity that Westport experienced in February and March of 2006.
The activity in Weston in recent weeks has been more modest. There are currently 4
bindered properties and 5 pending sales. Interestingly, the average of those listing prices
are $ 866,300 and $1,034,975, below Weston’s average sale price. That may be an
indication of the type of buyer who sees value in Weston.
Recent media coverage has indicated that the worst of the real estate ‘correction’ is behind
us. It is still too early to say if the potential buyers have accepted the pundits’ opinions on
such matters. The average Mortgage rates have actually decreased in the past couple of
months, and are still near record lows. This may be an indication of the Fed’s desire to see
an upturn in real estate prices (and indicate that the Fed is less worried about inflation).
During the period of 2003 to 2006, if one were to look at the average sale price as a rough
guide, Westport average sales prices increased 43%, Fairfield’s average prices were up
36%, and Weston prices increased 22% over that period. The 10% or so average increases
in Westport are not the type of inflation that the Fed is especially concerned about.
They are watching 20+% yearly increases in average values, such as were seen in Florida,
California, and Las Vegas. The price corrections in those areas have been in the order of
25% or more. Labor statistics that appeared today indicated that the economy continues to
expand at a healthy rate, and unemployment and inflation seem to be well under control.
These results will translate into increased real estate sales. The question of when this will
happen will be tied to consumer confidence. Positive changes vis-à-vis questions such as
the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the upcoming majority change in Congress could play
a major role in the public’s perception and regenerate the type of positive impetus needed in
the current real estate market.

Rob Grodman
Coldwell Banker
305 Post Road East
Westport, CT. 06880
The highest compliment my clients can give me is the referral
of their friends, family and business associates.

Still Transitioning

2006-11-22T07:57:00.000-08:00

Most recent Westport statistics show that we are still in a transitional period. Year to date there have been 360 sales of single family homes in Westport, compared to 488 at this time last year, 501 in 2004, and 424 in 2003. We had been keeping pace with 2003 until the end of October, and then the gap widened considerably. There are currently 32 pending sales and 15 binders in Westport, which puts us on a pace of over 400 sales if the above homes close before the end of the year.

Weston continues to lag far behind 2003, 2004, and 2005 sales. Year to date sales in Weston stand at 122, compared to 188 last year, 209 in 2004 and 198 in 2003. There are currently 9 pending sales and 3 properties under binder.

The Federal Reserve has begun to speak about the housing market, which will probably be beneficial in the long run. Donald Kohn, the Fed's vice-chairman recently stated that we are in a 'correction' period-a cyclical rebalancing of the marketplace that got too hot for too long in some parts of the country, and is now heading back towards more 'normal' conditions.

Not all home sellers have fully grasped the altered realities in their own local markets, pricing homes at above last year's prices, and these homes are not selling. Re-priced homes, more in line with 2005 figures, should stimulate more buyers to get off the sidelines and make offers. The unexpected 4.3 percent increase in the latest monthly number of pending home sales contracts heading for closing nationwide reported in October by the National Association of Realtors could be a sign that Kohn's prediction is starting to take root.

It would seem, from what I can determine, that homes prices started to fall in April about 1% per month. Many Realtors will be looking to see if the spring market changes that course, starting in January 2007.

The Gap is Widening but...

2006-10-27T11:33:00.000-07:00

This is a good news/bad news posting. First, the bad news. Total sales year to date in Westport is starting to lag behind the 2003 sales that I had mentioned in a previous posting. The 339 single family sales is off less than 1% off of 2003 sales. We had been very slightly ahead of those figures a month ago. However, when compared to more recent statistics, this total represents a drop of almost 20% when compared to 2005. Prices are still showing higher numbers than last year, but I believe this to be a misleading statistic. A number of properties that sold in 2005 which have come back to the market for resale have sold for less than the previous year, thus indicating that prices have effectively decreased.

The good news is that the inventory has been slowly decreasing. We now have 355 listings in Westport compared to a high of 396 on June 19th. There has also been a small flurry of activity leading to binders, which if they close this year will help to bridge the gap. Alan Greenspan just announced that he believes that the Real estate market has seen the worst. We shall see...

The Weston Market, which has been remarkably consistent in the previous 3 years is off 30%, and the gap there is likely to widen before year's end. Though inventory has also markedly decreased, the number of sales has been meager at best since August.

I still have the feeling that there will need to be a change in buyer/seller motivation in order for the pendulum to swing in the opposite direction. I am encouraging buyers to consider acting now, rather than waiting too long. The reasons for that are twofold. One, interest rates have recently come down, and it is difficult to predict how long that will be the case. Secondly, I expect that when this market begins to turn sometime in 2007, it will shift again to more of a seller's market. At that point, I expect that prices will begin to rise again.

Things are Not Always as they Appear

2006-10-06T07:52:00.000-07:00

If one were to listen to the media, it would appear that no one is purchasing real estate. This is not exactly true. This year in Westport there have been 359 single family homes sold year to date( October 2, 2006). When compared to 2005, this is a decrease of approximately 10%. There are also, 71 homes under Contract. However,to have a more accurate idea of what is happening, it is more interesting to look back over the past 5 years. The following are the figures for homes sold from Jan.1-October 2 in their respective years:

2005 /406
2004/ 411
2003 /322
2002 /411
2001 /361
2000 /392

Otherwise stated, in Westport we are ahead of the pace set in 2003. In terms of actual dollars and cents spent for real estate it may be premature to compare this year with other years until the end of the year. However, I would not be surprised if more total dollars were spent this year than in previous years, due in part to a larger number of high end sales in 2006. Even if the latter were not put into the equation, we are on a pace to sell more homes than in 2003, which was our third best year.

The totals in Weston are not quite so rosy. Sales in 2006 are about 30% behind those (year to date) of 2005. Year to date figures for Weston (thru October 2, 2006) are as follows:

2006 /119
2005 /156
2004 /164
2003 /161

Inventory numbers in both Westport and Weston are on a slight decline when compared to previous months. In terms of Single Family homes, there are currently 359 active Single Family homes in Westport, compared to 392 homes at the height of the market in May/June, but above the early spring (April) figures of 288. The same scenario is true in Weston. There are currently 152 active single family homes on the market in Weston, compared to 181 at the height of the spring market, and 143 in the early part of the market. All of these figures are well above levels that we have seen in the past five years.

The changing nature of the market is that the lower end of the market has been more active in the latter part of the year and there has been a fall off in prices. The true statistics for this decrease are difficult to decipher. Typical methods for comparison used are average sales prices, and median sales prices. In both of these cases in Westport we are ahead of last year, based again on a higher percentage of high end sales. In actuality, the 'correction' has probably been on the order of 10% in some cases. Homes really have to be looked at on a case by case basis. Factors that were previously overlooked in a heated market, are now having a direct effect on values. These include location, condition of kitchen and baths, useable land, exterior conditions.

In the high end, prices have been adjusted by large amounts (sometimes in the hundred of thousands of dollars), but this has been due in part to overpricing. For example, a $3,000,000 house that has been overpriced by 10% or more based on pricing ahead of the market (as in previous years), could see a price reduction of $300,000 or more. The equivalent for a million dollar home would be price reductions of $100,000.

Interest rates have recently fallen to levels that were very similar to figures seen a year ago, at approximately 6.30%. It would appear that the Fed is not unhappy with the Real estate price corrections in light of the Fed's concern with inflation. The Real estate slowdown has apparently been a major factor in the economy slowing somewhere between 1-2% in 2006.

All in all, it is a good time to be a buyer, especially in the lower end, where a buyer is likely to get considerably more house for the money than a year ago. Sellers will probably need to become more realistic.

The number of homes that go unsold is increasing due to larger of numbers of homes on the market. Initial pricing is more critical than ever in this marketplace.

Steady But Slow

2006-08-11T09:30:00.000-07:00

It is time to take a step back and look at what has happened in the past couple of months.

It is clear to say, as I have been saying for several months, that it is a different market. The main differences in comparing this market to the market of say the past 5 years, is that there is definitely more inventory, and homes are taking longer to sell than in the past. I would add a third point to that which was somewhat true in the past (unbeknownst to many buyers), and that is that more than half of the properties currently on the market will not sell. They will not sell during this listing period, and they may not sell 6 months from now.

The key word is INVENTORY. If the numbers remain high, with equal demand, the prices will decrease. In the 'old' market the inventory numbers would hit their highs in the spring, by either April or May, and tale off towards the end of the year in a classic Bell curve. In the past 5 years those numbers in Westport would be around 235-250 listings at the peak. This April we were at 340, which increased to 380 by the end of May. They went as high as 392 listings for Single Family homes in late June. As of this week, those numbers stood at 367; down from the highpoint, but well above typical levels.

Though many homes are not selling, the sales numbers are still high. On August 7th there were 278 sales in Westport compared to 316 at this time in 2005. That is off by 12%, but 2005 was a record year. By projecting the homes that are currently under contract as selling before the end of the year, we are on pace to sell 415 homes, even if nothing sells in the last 4 months of the year. Last year 33% of the sales took place during that last quarter.

What is more difficult to discern are the 'real' values. Homes that are not well maintained are actually losing value. The public has become more discerning as a result of seeing more homes, i.e., with increased inventory.

The statistics in Weston, however, are less optimistic. The 93 homes sold through August 7th, 2006 represented a 20% decrease from last year. When looking at current activity, there are 29 homes under contract and only 4 under binder. It this last figure which is somewhat telling. Based on sales year to date plus contractual activity Weston is on a pace to sell only 126 homes, which would be a decrease of nearly 33% compared to last year. In 2005, 38% of the sales took place in the 4th quarter, so this is a statistic that will have to be surveyed.

Market Balance

2006-07-12T08:44:00.000-07:00

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RISMEDIA, July 10, 2006—Three months ago, HouseHunt’s “Current Market Conditions” survey showed that the overall U.S. housing market was close to a rare balance between buyer demand and seller supply for the first time in eight years. HouseHunt’s latest quarterly survey shows that equilibrium has been achieved: 41 percent of member agents said more buyers than sellers; 40 percent said more sellers than buyers; and 19 percent reported a 50/50 balance.

Most notable exceptions are in the Northeast, the Chicago metro area, and in the Western states. Home buyers outnumber sellers by considerable margins in Chicago and the West, while sellers outnumber buyers in the Northeast.

Additional proof of a balanced national market between buyers and sellers are reported by the National Association of Realtors, which estimated a 6.5 month supply of unsold homes in its May report. An inventory supply of 5.5 to 6.0 months is considered to be balanced.

HouseHunt’s second quarter national survey also found:

Fifty-six percent of member agents said it is now taking, on average, more than 60 days from listing to contract to sell a house. This is up from 55 percent in the first quarter and 35 percent a year ago. Twenty-eight percent said it is taking more than 90 days to contract. Only 15 percent of existing homes are selling in 30 days or less.

Housing inventories are continuing to increase: 86 percent now report a good supply in virtually all price ranges; this is up from 81 percent in the first quarter and 38 percent a year ago.

Sixty-six percent of member agents reported that annual home price appreciation is now five percent or less; this is down from 8-10 percent a year ago. Home price appreciation of more than 10 percent is now 16 percent, on average.

The percentage of home sellers getting 95 percent or more of asking prices is currently 68 percent, compared to 90 percent a year ago. Three months ago it was 75 percent.

Multiple offers from home buyers are also down substantially; the current estimate is 32 percent. It was 39 percent in the first quarter and 70 percent a year ago.

First-time buyers still account for one of three home sales nationally. Repeat and move-up buyers are the most active in higher priced markets. Recent home price appreciation and rising mortgage interest rates has, on average, only a minimal negative effect on first-time buyers. Exceptions are marginal qualifiers.

Ben Garrett of West USA Realty, exclusive HouseHunt agent for Chandler, AZ, noted in his Real Trends report: “All of Chandler is growing because of increased job opportunities. The significant increase in hoe properties has died down. Investors have moved out, helping supply and demand. We continue to see growth in Greater Phoenix.” Median home price is $400,000.

Sharon Combs of Long & Foster, exclusive HouseHunt agent for Winchester, VA, reported more sellers than buyers, with 60-90 days average time on the market: “National builders are giving as much as $100,000 in extras and closing costs on existing inventory homes.”

Quentin Green, exclusive HouseHunt agent for Lincoln Park Homes in the Chicago metro area, said that average home prices are down 5-10 percent in the past year: “Our market has quieted down tremendously over the past 60 days. What sold last year in 15 to 30 days is taking 69 to 90 days to sell, at minimum. Higher end properties are taking 180 to 360 days.”

Lee Seaton of Prudential R.E. Professionals, exclusive HouseHunt agent for Eugene, OR, reported a 50/50 market for buyers and sellers: “There are many more listings for buyers to choose from and sales are taking a little longer, but prices are stable or gradually rising.” Move-up buyers are most active.

In our market in Mid-Fairfield County, much of the previous information is also true. We are seeing what I call 'Buyer's Revenge'. Some buyers who have been waiting for a change in the market conditions sense that that time has come, and they feel that they are in a position of strength. This is true in most cases. The exception to this rule is when an exceptional house comes on the market with an exceptional price. Then, multiple buyers may be vying for a single property, and the result will be a multiple offer situation, with the selling price coming in above the listing price.

For homes that are listed too high it is not unusual for buyers to make offers of 10% below the asking price. Many sellers have not yet understood the change in the market conditions which makes the sale of their home unlikely.

June Update-Changing Market Dynamics

2006-06-23T07:44:00.000-07:00

I thought that it would be useful to share a memo from the President and Chief Executive Officer of NRT (Coldwell Banker), Bruce Zipf.

"The ability to predict what will happen in the real estate industry is always a challenge for those who attempt to analyze the industry. For the past ten years, skeptics have predicted that the real estate bubble would burst that particular year, yet the market continued to experience tremendous gains.

Despite the current and near-term expected moderation in the number of existing home sales, we believe that the housing market will continue to benefit from expected positive long-term economic and demographic fundamentals. Although we knew the market couldn't sustain an overwhelming pace of growth throughout this decade, we are embracing a return to a more normal level of business, commonly referred to as a stable market, and the smart sellers and buyers are those who will take advantage of it.

...They (clients) need to know that demographics experts at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies expect to see 13.3 million additional households between 2005 and 2015, with significant anticipated growth in the numbers of immigrants, minority households and echo boomers. Even though home prices are far higher than they were 20 years ago, housing affordability and average household income are also both greater, so people can afford more for a home than they could back then. Combine this knowledge with Global Insight's expectation that mortgage rates will stay below 8 percent for the next nine years-and it all adds up to an excellent time to buy or sell real estate."

Westport Real Estate

2006-05-24T09:41:00.000-07:00

I will be monitoring the following statistics in our local Real Estate market in order for my Sellers and Buyers to understand what is happening in the market: The number of listings in a given town (inventory), number of homes 'Under Binder', number of homes 'Under Contract' and yearly sales year-to-date. Using the above, we shall have a better idea of what is currently happening in the local real estate markets.

There has been much written in the local, Metropolitan, as well as national media about Real Estate in the past year. Some of this information has been accurate. Much of it has been incorrect. Last Autumn, many pundits were espousing ideas that the Real Estate markets would collapse, or see major market corrections. Let me preface here, that I will only be referring here to the markets with which I am familiar, (or the markets of my immediate referral network, made of top agents in Connecticut and Westchester and Manhattan, with whom I am in regular contact.)

There are currently 375 active listings in Westport, which compares to approximately 250-275 listings in previous years at this time of year. That is an increase of roughly 30%. In the past week the activity in the Westport market has seen some very positive changes with an additional 25 single family homes going to contract compared to the previous week. Of those properties, 20 were at list prices over $1 million, and 10 were listed at over $2,000,000.

Year to date sales of Single Family on the Multiple Listing service is now at 110 homes. The average sales price of homes that have sold in 2006 is over $1,600,000. This figure may not be an accurate indication of what the year end market figures will show. A number of 'high end' properties have brought up the average sales price, which was approximately $1,421,000 in 2005, with an average list price of $1,475,944.

The average sales price of single family homes in Westport has increased 36%
from 2001 to 2005. That would indicate an average yearly increase of 9%. However, in our market there is often a direct correlation between what happens on Wall Street and our own property transfers, since many of our new buyers come from the Financial Services sector. The stock market corrections of High-tech in 2000 and 9/11 in 2001 flattened those increases. Increases post-2002 were more than 10%.

However, in 2006 we initially saw pricing in January and February that reflected 10% increases over 2005. Many of these homes have been either sitting on the market with no movement, or had their prices reduced, sometimes dramatically, by more than 10%. The actual increases appear to be in the range of about 3%. Homes that have been listed with those numbers in mind, have been selling in relatively short time spans, though with less interest than in the past couple of years. Buyers seem to be holding back, waiting to see and understand the price correction that the market is going through.

Changes in the past week, along with improvement in the weather conditions may be an indication that we are entering a 'late' spring market.