Americans Woefully Misinformed About Nation's Housing Market
Daniel DeVise The Hill January 23, 2023
A new survey finds Americans are woefully misinformed about the nation’s mercurial housing market, even as millions of them prepare to buy homes.
Twenty-eight million Americans plan to purchase a home in 2023, according to a survey released Tuesday by NerdWallet, the personal finance company. On average, they hope to spend $269,200.
But that figure falls more than $100,000 short of the median home price, which was $388,100 in December, according to the real estate brokerage Redfin. Home prices crossed the $269,000 threshold sometime in 2013, Federal Reserve statistics show.
If prospective homebuyers sound oddly optimistic about prices, that may be because they are pessimistic about the state of the housing market. Two-thirds of Americans surveyed said they expect an imminent crash.
Real estate economists do not. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, forecast an average sale price of $385,800 this year, about the same as last year. Redfin predicts a 4 percent drop: bad news for sellers, but hardly a crash.
“Home prices already have been falling, especially on the West Coast, and prices will fall in some cities in 2023,” said Holden Lewis, a home and mortgages expert for NerdWallet. “But a drop in home prices isn’t necessarily a crash.”
Another head-scratcher: 61 percent of Americans told pollsters current mortgage rates are unprecedented, meaning that they have never been seen before.
“We actually defined it,” said Elizabeth Renter, data analyst for NerdWallet.
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.15 percent last week, according to the Fed. That’s higher than most mortgage rates of the past few years, which have ranged below 3 percent at times.
But it is not unprecedented. Over the last 50 years, NerdWallet reports, 30-year mortgage rates have averaged 7.75 percent. Mortgage rates in the 6 to 7 percent range were common as recently as 2008.
Homebuyers have basked in a climate of historically low rates for more than a decade. The Fed cut rates dramatically in the Great Recession of 2008 to stimulate the economy, a campaign that continued, on and off, through the COVID-19 pandemic.
Runaway inflation prompted a dramatic series of hikes in 2022, which pushed mortgage rates back to “normal” levels, at least in a historical sense.
The new survey of 2,051 American adults, conducted by the Harris Poll for NerdWallet, is the latest iteration of an annual poll. Pollsters have found overconfident home shoppers for several consecutive years.
“We know from the past five years, roughly 10 percent of Americans say they’re going to purchase a home in the next 12 months, which is wildly optimistic,” Renter said. “Part of it could be that they’re unaware of what’s going on in the housing market.
The survey found more realism when asking respondents how their homebuying plans had panned out in 2022.
Seventy percent of Americans who had planned to buy a home in 2022 did not succeed. Some of them made offers that were not accepted. Others shelved their plans because they couldn’t find affordable homes.
If you have an unfinished
basement in your home, you might have long had plans to make it into a usable
space. Your basement could be used for many different purposes; entertaining,
exercising, watching movies, or perhaps another bedroom.
Your basement could become a
valuable addition to your home, but at what cost? We will look at how much is a finished basement to ensure you have the budget to improve your home.
What does it cost to finish a
basement?
The average finished basement cost varies depending on many things. The current
condition and what you want to do to the basement are prominent factors.
Perhaps you want to add a bathroom or turn the space into a media room, and these choices will
affect the cost.
Homeowners’ average finished
basement cost is between $22 and more than $60 per square foot. You should
budget around $20,000 to more than $65,000 to finish your basement.
However, if you want to create
a few specialty rooms, with quality flooring, in a large basement, your costs
could be considerably higher than these averages.
So do you have the budget to
complete your basement project? Let’s look at a breakdown of construction costs:
§Framing; $7 to $16
per linear foot
§Flooring; $1 to
$20 per square foot
§Waterproofing; $2
to $10 per square foot
§Electrical; $500
to $3,000
§Finishing; $5 to
$8 per square foot
§Labor; $25 to $100
per hour
Framing costs
With the increase in lumber
prices, framing has become more expensive. You can expect to pay at least $7
per foot of timber to frame the basement. This cost includes nails and other
materials, but the cost will increase if you plan to use steel instead or if
there are load-bearing walls.
Flooring costs
The basement will probably need
a subfloor if there isn’t one already. The subfloor can cost $2 to $7 and
improve the insulation in the room.
The final cost of flooring
depends on your choice of finishes and is where you can save if you need to.
Vinyl flooring can cost just $1 per square foot, whereas you could pay $25 per
square foot for a good wood floor.
Waterproofing expenses
Ensure the space is adequately
waterproofed to prevent your newly finished basement from flooding. This can
cost as much as $10 per square foot, depending on the size and what is required
to keep the room dry.
It is worth the extra money to
ensure you don’t have a mold or water problem.
Electrical costs
If your basement already has
lights and outlets, this cost will be lower, but if you are starting from
scratch, it can cost up to $3,000 on average. If you already have electricity
in the basement, you might only need some additional outlets and lights, reducing
your expenses.
Finishing expenses
With the framing complete,
drywall, insulation, and paint need to be added to the bill. Drywall costs
around $2 per square foot, and insulation is a similar expense. Paint can cost
between $2 and $4 per square foot, but don’t forget it isn’t just the walls;
the ceiling also needs to be finished.
Labor costs
The labor cost will likely be
your most significant expense in the project. Depending on your location, a
good basement contractor could cost between $25 and $100 per hour.
You should get a few quotes
before deciding on the contractor to hire. The quotes might not set out their
pricing in the same way, however, and you need to compare them fairly.
Some might include the labor in
the total project cost, though others could charge hourly. Also, research the
contractor, check customer feedback, and ask them questions before you decide.
Other basement options
Sump pump installation
Even when waterproofing the
basement, water could still ruin your new space. A sump pump will ensure water
doesn’t accumulate, though it could cost over $1,000. If you live in an area
more susceptible to flooding, this could be an important extra cost.
Furniture expenses
If you don’t already have
furniture for your new living space, you need to budget to furnish the room.
HVAC upgrades
You’ll want to make sure the
basement area will be a nice place to be no matter what the weather is like
outside. This might mean you need a new HVAC system if your current system
cannot serve the new space.
Final thoughts
There are many options when
finishing a basement. It is essential to plan carefully and take out all the
necessary permits. Consult with a local REALTORⓇ if you want to know the value added to your property upon
completion.
With over 20 years experience in Fairfield County real estate, Rob has seen both the market’s high and low points. His approach to his clients has remained the same. Survey the market daily to understand where it is trending, work with a limited number of seller and buyer clients to give them the best possible service, and establish a rapport of openness and honesty.
On average, Rob’s listings sell at nearly 95% of asking price, testament to his outstanding pricing acumen and understanding of market conditions. He has served as the Chairman of the Technology Committee for the Mid-Fairfield County Association of Realtors and as its representative on the state level. Rob resides in Westport with his family.