Manhattan Real Estate 2018

Since many of our new buyers are coming from Manhattan, and can directly affect our market, I keep up with what is going on there through several contacts at different agencies. 

The information herewith was compiled through the efforts of The Corcoran Group.

2018 was a challenging year in the Manhattan real estate market, with total sales volume  declining 11% year over year to 11,790 closings.  Those numbers dwarf the numbers in Lower Fairfield County, but  from our perspective we have been surprised that a correction in Manhattan real estate has not come sooner.  Foreign investment has in many ways helped to shield Manhattan from the big
drops that we saw after the 2008 stock market crash. 

From afar, it looks like the situation is akin to what we have been seeing over the past 5 years or so in our market. Inventory in Manhattan has been on the increase, up 10% in 2018. That is likely because potential sellers have noticed that prices are also correcting.  The median price was down 4% in 2018
to $1,100,000.  That pricing difference was less than what we experienced in most mid-Fairfield towns last year (refer to my previous blog about 2018 year end statistics).  At the end of the first quarter there should be some early indications of where the market in Manhattan (and Fairfield County) are trending.

What seems troubling as an observer is that new development sales fell at a rate five times the amount of either resale condos or resale co-ops, dropping 35% year over year.  The 1500 closings represented the fewest number of closings in 10 years.  It seems that there is a tremendous amount of new construction still underway in Manhattan. 

'Resales also saw fewer sales compared to 2017, but had more moderate declines of 7% for condos and 6% for resale co-ops'.  The high end ($5 million+) fell to the lowest level (766) since 2014.  For new developments there was a decrease of 42% year over year.