Steady as She Goes

October activity outpaced 2014 levels in all 4 towns that I regularly cover in this blog.  Contracts were up in many towns 100% or more throughout Mid-Fairfield towns.  Meanwhile, the number of closed sales has been a little less vibrant, with most sales running at levels similar to 2014, while a few are ahead.  The New York Metropolitan area, as seen by the Case-Schiller index, is also following a similar trend, up just 1.85% compared to 2014.

Westport had 51 properties go to contract in October compared to 35 in October ’14.  Year to date there have been 357 homes that have gone to contract compared to 341 at this time last year, though there have been 333 closed sales compared to 334 through October in ’14.  The volume of homes coming to the market is up 7%, representing 9.8 months of inventory.  In a more even real estate market we would expect to see 5-8 months of inventory.  The median price in Westport has actually seen a slight dip of 2.1% to $1,295,000.

In Weston there were 21 homes that went to contract compared to only 9 in October 2014. Contracts are up 12.1% year to date, though closed sales are lagging slightly 130 vs. 134 at this time last year.  2014 was a nice bounce back year for Weston, which had seen some softness in sales.  The median price is up 2.5% to $827,000 for the year, though marketing time is still over 180 days.

Our laggard this year appears to be Wilton.  Closed sales are down 10.4%, from 201 at this time last year to 180 thus far.  Yet October was also an excellent month for Wilton with 20 properties going to contract compared to 18 last year.  To add to the mixed results we see an increased median price of $845,000 (+5.6%), yet inventory is up 13.4%-while at 9.1 months, it is more favorable than Weston and Westport levels.  Marketing time has also decreased 8.4% to 142 days on average.

Our volume leader continues to be Fairfield with 667 closed sales, an 18.5% increase.  The median price, though, is practically unchanged at $575,000, compared to $573,000 in 2014.  Clearly entry level homes continue to drive the Fairfield market.  High end sales are up slightly, with 17 sales over $2 million in 2015, but way behind Westport, with 80 thus far this year. The inventory level of 8.4 months is somewhat deceptive, with higher end homes sitting and homes under $1 million continuing to sell at a much more brisk pace.

Early Autumn Sales

By the end of September, it now looks like most towns have caught up to 2014 levels with the exception of Wilton.  In Wilton there have been 167 sales thus far compared to 181 at the end of September 2014, representing a decrease of 7.7%. There was a bump up in September of 20 homes going to contract compared to 15 in September 2014, and the median price has increased approximately 4.7% to $853,000 through September.

Weston’s median price of $850,000 is nearly identical to Wilton’s.  Weston has slowed slightly.  There were 14 homes that went to contract compared to 11 during the same period in the previous year.  The 123 homes sold thus far is one more than through the first 9 months of 2014.

Westport saw a significant jump in September activity, with 45 homes going to contract compared to 30 in September 2014. The median price slipped slightly to $1,300,000, a 3.5% dip.  Closed sales are slightly ahead of 2014 with 296 compared to 292.

While the median price of $580,000 is holding ‘steady’, sales volume is increasing rapidly in Fairfield.  September saw 113 properties go to contract, compared to 45 in September, 2014.  Year to date there have been 607 closed sales in Fairfield compared to 524 last year, a 15.8% increase.  I would expect to see continued gains throughout the year.

Late Summer Surge

As we look back on the hot summer of 2015, we see that August activity was heated in all Mid-Fairfield towns as well.  In the town of Fairfield the number of homes that went under contract in August was more than double what it had been in August of 2015.  Interestingly in Fairfield the marketing time of homes remains very steady at 145 days compared to 146 days last year, which is the shortest average of all of the towns included in our regular overview.  Closed sales in Fairfield are up 14.9% to 539 thus far this year, and there have been 599 properties that have gone to escrow, so end of year sales should be significantly higher than in 2014.  With all of those impressive numbers,
one might expect to see an increase in the median price in Fairfield, but it remains at approximately
$580,000-the same figure as the 2014 Median price. The trend of lower priced homes continues to
make up the lion's share of homes going to contract.  Entry level buyers continue to see the value of Fairfield's Silver Ribbon schools and outstanding amenities.

Westport also saw a nice jump in August activity, with 53 single family properties going to contract compared to 34 last year. Through the end of August there have been 290 single family homes that have gone to contract compared to 276 during the comparable period in 2014, a 5.1% increase. Current closed sales (through August 31) are at 260 vs. 266 in the previous year, and the marketing time of properties has increased to 182 days compared to 167 in 2014.  The median price in Westport has dipped slightly (-2.8%) to $1,312,505.

Weston had a solid August  with contracts up to 21 compared to 11 in the previous August, and the median price increasing year to date 5.2% to $852,000.  Yearly escrows are up 9.9% from the previous year, though closed sales stand at 115, down 7 from the previous year, and marketing times have increased to 191 days compared to 173 at this time last year.

Wilton is now slightly lagging 2014 levels.  The 150 closed sales are 15 behind end of August, 2014 single family sales figures, though the days on market of homes dropped 7% to 147 days on average. The median price increased 7.4% to 860,000 ($8000 higher than its neighbor Weston).   Year to date 170 homes have gone to contract compared to 168 through end of August, 2014.  There are signs of increased activity in September, so yearly levels may yet catch up.

Surprisingly hot spring in some parts

Activity in the marketplace under $1 million continues to advance at a rapid pace.  Weston continues to be the standout in that regard.  32 properties went to contract in Weston in March compared to 11 in 2014 representing an increase of more than 190 per cent.  Year to date there have been 46 properties that have gone to contract versus 26 in the first quarter of 2014 in Weston.  At the same time the median price in Weston compared to the first quarter of 2014 decreased by 21 % to $655,000.  In other words, the majority of activity has been on homes under $800,000.  There have only been 93 new properties that have come to the market in the first quarter compared to 103 in the first quarter of 2014.  Based on current activity there is 5.8 month of inventory. 

Wilton to has also had a hot spring market. March saw 37 properties go to contract, an increase of 105% over March 2014.  Year to date there have been 61 properties that have gone to contract compared to 41 in the first quarter of 2014.  Contrary to Weston, however, median prices are on
the rise in Wilton.  The median price of homes that have sold this year are up 25.4% to $875,000,
compared to $698,000 in the first quarter of 2014.  Wilton has however, seen an increase in new properties coming to the market, up 10.8%.  Closed sales are also down a bit, with 29 closed sales in the first quarter compared to 34 in the first quarter of 2014, representing a 14.7% drop.

Westport's median price has seen a slight decrease of 3.8% to $1,250,000. March contracts were down slightly (-6.5%) to 43 compared to March 2014.  First quarter results also saw a drop off,
77 vs. 87 in '14, or 11.5%.  Closed sales are also down slightly (-3.2%) to 61 (vs. 63) in the first
quarter.  Recent activity in April has been more brisk and these figures will likely be positive for
the month of April.

Fairfield continues to be the steadiest of the towns, with a median price increase of 2.8%.
Contracts in March were up to 101 compared to 60 in March, 2014.  Interest rates are helping to
drive the entry level buyers.  First quarter results are up 31.6% to 179 units under contract.  Closed sales are also up, 11.9% to 113 units in the first quarter.

There have been some recent indications that properties in the $1million-$2 million levels have been more active as have some of the higher end properties over $3 million.