2018 Mid-Fairfield Yearly Real Estate Totals

The 4^th quarter saw a slowdown in activity.  Sales did not keep pace with the first 3 quarters of the year.  Values of higher end sales continued to be more impacted than those in lower end homes.  Thisfollows the previous thesis that I previously put forward regarding the impact of the new tax laws affecting the limits in deductions of real estate taxes and mortgages.

In Westport, there were 433 single family home sales in 2018 compared with 410 in the previous year representing a decrease of approximately 5.5 %. More significantly, the median price decreased from $1,314,000 in 2017 to $1,220,000 in 2018, a 9.2% drop.  There were 72 properties that sold for over $2 million. There were 143 sales of  single family homes for under $1 million. 

Weston values decreased slightly more than those in Westport, dropping 10 per cent to a median price of $702,000 compared to $780,000 in 2017.  Sales numbers were less impacted with a differential of only 6 homes, from 173 in 2017 to 167 this past year, only a 3.4% difference. The total of sales under $800,000 was 101. There were 9 properties that sold for over $1.5 million in 2018.  Two of these were over $2 million.

Wilton’s median price actually increased in 2018 to $780,000, from $727,000 in 2017.  However, the sales volume decreased from 229 to 206 single family homes sales, a 7.2% decrease. The total of sales under $800,000 was 109.  There were ten sales of properties over $1.5 million.  4 of these were over $2 million.

Fairfield also had positive results in terms of its median price, increasing from $599,000 in 2017 to $630.000 in 2018.  Single family home sales were down in 2018 to 730 from 781 in 2017, a 6.5% decrease.  There were 585 sales under $1 million.  Sales of homes sold for over $2 million totaled 29.

Thoughts on the Case-Schiller Index and the Upcoming Spring Market

	EffectiveDate	Index Level	1 MTH	3 MTH	12 MTH
Index Levels
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller New York Home Price NSA Index	Sep-2018	199.65	0.23 %	0.78 %	2.62 %

As lower Fairfield County is directly impacted by real estate trends in New York City, I keep an eye on these figures both for looking ahead to get a sense of where we may be heading, and to have a look back at the past to have a sense of perspective. In August 2008, (just after the stock market crisis)  for example, the New York index level was at 161.94 compared to 199.65 today. To get some additional perspective, the levels we are seeing today are quite similar to the July 2005 level of 199.86.  Case-Schiller saw its highest levels in New York in June 2006, at 215.25. After the crisis of 2008 the levels went through a roller coaster of dips and rises through April 2012 when the nadir of 157.95 was reached.  Since that time we have continued to see periodic small swings in the market with a general move upwards. The Fed raised interest rates in September and most of my colleagues in the mortgage business expect them to rise further. What is the likely impact going to be on our real estate market? 30 Year Fixed mortgages (for those with good credit) are still below 5%.  When I entered the real estate business rates were above 8% and we were thrilled when they went down to 7%. Mortgage rates are still historically low, as is unemployment, and inflation. We live in a world where we are bombarded each day with information. So much so, that it can be difficult to see the larger picture. There are some analysts who feel that the real estate market will further correct itself.  Some home sales in our area have been motivated  by sellers who are of that opinion. As mortgage rates are likely to rise slightly, that will make make home prices somewhat more expensive, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight adjustment if that happens in the spring.  On the other hand, pricing is also linked with inventory.  If inventory is low and demand is high we should see stable pricing. Inventory levels in the high end of our markets remains high, and pricing for homes over $1.5 million in some markets and higher in others, has been directly impacted by that. Each market is different, but in general, homes in excellent condition under $900,000 have been selling well. Inventory levels are still above the levels that we saw in the period of 2003-2006, though, including on the lower end of the market. In our area, towns that are not directly on the New Haven train line have seen their prices more negatively impacted during the past three or so years.  Rising taxes in those towns have also impacted selling prices. Our values still appear to be relatively reasonable when compared with the cost of New York apartments.  Our great schools, diverse housing stock, great amenities, and beautiful countryside should soon be attracting those millennials reaching their 30s who will soon be having children, and will be reconsidering the costs of living in the city and private schools versus commuting from the suburbs.