Wilton July 2019 Update

There are currently 200 active single family listings in Wilton with a median list price of $839,000.  These are distributed with 72.5% under $1 million (145); 23.5% listed between $ 1 million to 2 million (47) ; and 4% (8) listed over $ 2 million.  There are 39 properties that currently have accepted offers or have gone to contract.

Sales of single family homes through July 31, 2019 have numbered 134, a 17.5 percent increase over sales during the same time period in 2018.  The median price thus far in 2019 has been $725,000 which is a $70,000 drop from last year, representing a decrease of 8 per cent. The 2018 median price
through July 31 was $795,000. 

There have been 105 sales under $ 1 million representing 78% of the total sales.  28 sales were recorded for homes listed between $ 1 million to $2 million, representing 21% of the closed sales and there has only been 1 sale over $ 2 million. 

Weston Market Update July 2019

As previously noted in the Westport update,  higher than typical inventory levels were seen in Weston as well, with a current active inventory totaling 155 single family homes. 107 of these homes are listed for under $1 million; 43 are listed between $1 million to 2 million, and 5 are listed for over $2 million.  The median list price of active listings is $848,500.

Through July 31, 2019 there were 94 homes that have sold with a median sales price of $665,000.
In terms of total sales that compared with 93 during the same time period of last year, a statistically equal amount.  The median price is down $25,000 or 4 percent, which mirrors the amount in Westport on a percentage basis.

There were 72 sales that were below $1 million, representing 77% of the sales.  Sales between $1 million to $ 2 million totalled 20, representing 21% of the total sales and there was one sale for over $2 million.  These number breakdowns were almost identical to the first 7 months of 2018, though there were no sales over $2 million in 2018 through July 31.

Westport Market Update July 2019

We are continuing to see market inventory slightly above traditional levels for this time of year.  There are currently 357 single family homes actively available in Westport.  The breakdown of these active listings is: 109 homes listed under $1 million; 128 homes listed between $1 million-2 million; and, 120 homes listed for sale above $2 million.

There are currently 68 additional properties that have accepted offers and/or are under contract.  The breakdown is: 31 homes listed for under $1 million; 20 homes listed between $ 1 million to $2 million; and 17  properties listed for over $ 2 million.  These numbers are indicating two recent trends.  The first is a sell off in properties under $ 1 million at a rate higher than seen earlier in the year.  The second is an uptick in sales of more expensive homes (over $ 2 million).

There were 192 single family home sales through July 2019, which represented a 22% decrease compared to the first seven months of 2018.  The median price of these homes was $1,195,000, which represented a modest 4.2% decrease over the 2018 figure.  40% of the sales (77) were homes
that sold for under $ 1 million.  As mentioned above, recently sales activity seem to indicate that home sales under $ 1 million are increasing as a proportion of the total home sales.  The 90 homes that sold between $ 1 million- 2 million represented 46.8% of the market.  Recent activity in this
price range has decreased.  High end home sales (over $ 2 million) have totaled 27 through July,
representing only 14% of the total sales.  The 17 properties mentioned above that have accepted offers will increase these percentages going forward.

Looking back on 2018 sales through July (245) with a median price of $1,248,000 we saw a sales
breakdown as follows:
Under $ 1 million                               80 sales   32.4% of market
$1 million - 2 million                       120 sales    49%   of market
$ 2 million +                                       48 sales    19.6% of market

Fairfield Country Statistics through May 2019 in Comparison to same period in 2018

Chief Economist of National Association of Realtors Speech at the Norwalk Inn

Last week, Laurence Yun, the chief economist of N.A.R. spoke for about 90 minutes about the state of the real estate market in Connecticut as well as nationally. 

While once the wealthiest state in the nation, many of the wealthier residents have started to leave Connecticut.  This has been enhanced, in part, by the new tax laws which disadvantage states that have real estate taxes greater than $10,000/year, the limit by the new tax laws, as well as more expensive homes for which the $750,000 mortgage limit means that mortgage amounts above that will no longer be tax deductible. 

2018 GDP was +2.9%, a healthy number, but not sufficient to cover the additional costs of the tax cuts, which means that the Federal debt will be increasing significantly.  There have been some
economists that feel that a recession might be on the horizon.  Mr. Yun is more optimistic, feeling that very low interest rates might be able to sustain a continued prosperity for longer than what we have currently experienced (though he did note that there were some signals in the yield curve that might suggest that possibility) .  The fundamentals, he pointed out are still strong and consumer sentiment is also very strong (availability of jobs a factor).  The number of short sales and foreclosures are also down significantly to more historic levels.

On a national level, real estate affordability ( a measure of what people can afford based on income and debt) is actually higher than in the year 2000 (when mortgage rates were at 8%).

Job growth in Connecticut has been mixed.  In our area (Bridgeport to Stamford) it has fallen about 3% from the year 2000.  However, during the same time period New Haven saw job growth of 4%.
Further east the Norwich/New London area saw no growth. 

Weekly earning are rising, and there appears to be the capacity to expand.  At issue, in some locals, is that there are not enough qualified people to fill jobs. 

The Fed appears ready to be 'patient' and will likely not be raising interest rates until at least 2020.

Demand for starter homes remains strong throughout the country (including Connecticut), though in some places there is a lack of inventory.

The confluence of low rates and high consumer confidence are good indicators of a strong real estate market.  California and Connecticut are two areas where this has not been manifested, though the number of information requests for mortgage pre-approvals has been on the rise.

Existing home sales were slightly off nationwide, but new home sales are on the rise.  Resales of slightly older 'McMansions' were struggling, and the high end in Connecticut is 'soft'.  What had been a 10% differential between new and existing home sale prices has now widened to about 20-25%.  The growth of inventory has been slow nationwide, and housing starts for new housing is running behind demand. 

New home starts are down in Connecticut but Multi family starts are up.

In the past a typical period of time that people stayed in their homes was 7 years.  Today it is 10-11 years.  Consumers appear less excited about inventory choices.  More people not moving is an indication that people don't feel that their lives are improving (which is when they typically buy).

Unaffordable rents in the New York City market place are an indicator that there may be a shift of those people towards purchasing outside of the 5 boroughs. 

Student debt has also been a drag on millenials purchasing homes. 

In my next blog, I will speak about future solutions to improve Connecticuts real estate market  mentioned by Dr. Yun.

Westport Property Transfers April 2019

The April 2019 closings were nearly identical to those of April 2018.  Here are the
properties that closed:

27 Whitney Glen                                              $ 410,000
103 Harvest Commons                                        720,000
4 Davenport Ave.                                                 385,000
6 Abbotts Lane                                                     390,000
7 Fairport Road                                                    526,000
12 Fillow Street                                                    535,500
250 Wilton Road                                                  575,000
11 Fairport Road                                                  612,000
42 Kingshighway South                                       616,875
5 Whitney Street                                                   660,000
4 Robin Hill road                                                  670,000
29 Cross Highway                                                 700,000
5 Davis Lane                                                         740,000
148 Greens Farms Road                                        764,000
15 Silver Brook Road                                            775,000
9 Birchwood Lane                                                  790,000
21 Crooked Mile road                                             900,000
45 Marion Road                                                      985,000
9 Melon Patch Road                                              1,000,000
4 Scofield Place                                                     1,042,000
41 Burr Farms Road                                               1,100,000
10 Ridge Drive                                                       1,304,500
19 Bauer Place Extension                                       1,475,000
4 Tamarac Road                                                       1,527,500
15 Bradley Street                                                     1,549,000
8 Tower Ridge                                                         1,304,500
8 Linda Lane                                                            1,575,000
34 Bauer Place Extension                                        1,592,000
4 Berkeley Place                                                       1,600,000
36 Edgewater Hillside                                              1,675,000
146 Bayberry Lane                                                   1,675,000
168 Imperial Ave.                                                     1,720,000
7 River Lane                                                              1,775,000
12 Green Acre Lane                                                  1,950,000
6 Crystal Circle                                                         2,475,000
25 Edgemarth Hill                                                     2,500,000
11 Burr Farms Road                                                  3,050,000
2 Driftwood Road                                                      6,300,000

First Quarter 2019 Westport Results

Real Estate activity has had a bit of a roller coaster effect this year.  We seemed to be having a good start of the year that coincided with unseasonably warm weather in March.  Usually, things don't pick up until around February 15th, a date which usually coincides, more or less, with the Superbowl

The weather in mid to late February did not cooperate, and we saw a slowdown for a couple of weeks.  In the last couple of weeks the market has picked up again.

Recent activity can be best seen by properties that have accepted offers but have not yet gone to contract.  There are currently 39 properties that fit that category, including 28 which are listed for over $1 million.  In the early stages of the quarter we were seeing movement in less expensive properties.  The properties that are under contract are further along in the process and are more reflective of activity that occurred a little earlier.  Of the 42 properties under contract slightly more than half are over $1 million.

It could be that some people who have paid their income taxes are feeling a little better about what they paid.  The new mortgage limits and real estate tax deductions had been holding us back on the higher end.  That is evident in the number of closed sales in the early months of the year, which reflect activity that occurred two to three months before closing.

Through the first 3 months of the year Westport saw a significant downturn in the number of closed sales from the same three month period in 2018, from 84 in 2018 to 46 in 2019.  The median prices of our closings in the first quarter of 2019 seem to reflect an impact of the new tax laws, with a preponderance of properties selling near the $1 million mark.  The median price for the 46 sales has been $1,195,000.  However, the median price of the homes that have recently accepted offers is $1,495,000.  This is practically the same as the median price of first quarter closed sales in 2018, which was $1,400,000.

One should always reserve judgement after the first quarter statistics become known, because the second quarter, from April through June, is usually the busiest time of the year.  Special events such as elections can also have an impact on first quarter statistics as can the previously mentioned effects of the weather.

Mixed Results in January/February 2019

January & February 2019
 Results are Mixed

The 2018 Spring market was an active one, spurred in part by the new Trump era tax Legislation which had not officially come into play.  Early 2019 real estate sales point to activity that may be linked to certain mortgage and real estate tax  limitations imposed by the new laws.  New home loans cap that can be used for deductions has been reduced to $750,000 where they had been one million dollars previously.  The allowable real estate deductions are now capped at $10,000/year. 

Most affected by these changes are the blue states on both coasts where real estate values and real estate taxes tend to be higher than in the Midwest, South, and Southwestern regions of the country.  This is especially true in the large cities of the Northeast and their suburbs, as well as the large cities and suburbs of the West coast.

So it should not come as a big surprise that in the uncertainty leading into the 2018 tax season due to be filed by April 15^th of this year, that there is still some confusion in the minds of those currently looking to purchase.  In the towns which I cover, where the median price of homes is below the Million dollar mark (suggesting that most home loans will fall within the $750,000 parameters previously discussed), there has actually been increased overall activity.

In Weston and Wilton, which last year had median home sale prices of $702,000 and $780,000,respectively, closed sales in January and February of 2019 have surpassed the totals seen in the same months last year.  Weston had 15 closed sales in Janaury/February with the highest priced home sold being at 6 Calvin road for $1,350,000.  In 2018 there had been 14 in the same period of time and the highest priced home sold at 43 Norwalk Woods Road, which sold for $1,300,000.

In Wilton, there were 26 homes sold in 2019 compared to 22 in 2018 for the first two months.In 2018 there were 6 homes that sold for over $1million compared to 4 during the first two months of 2019.  The median price for Jan/Feb. in 2018 was $812,500 compared to $625,000 in 2019.  The highest priced home that sold in the first two months in 2019 was at 235 Cheesespring road for $1,760,000 compared to $2,850,000 for the home that sold at 21 School road in 2018.

Fairfield, which in 2018 had a median sales price of $630,000, also saw increases in the number of homes sold in Jan/Feb. of 2019.  93 homes sold during this period of time compared to 85 in the same period of time.  As far as the highest sales price is concerned, that number was considerably higher in the first two months of 2018, with the sale of 945 Sasco Hill road which sold for $4,650,000 compared to the highest sale of this two month period of 2019 when 3236 Congress street recently selling for $3,250,000.

In Westport, with a significantly higher median sales price of $1,220,000 in 2018, the number of sales in the first two months in 2019 dropped dramatically: from 51 in Jan/Feb, 2018 to 28 in the same period of 2019.  The highest sales number also dropped significantly, from $5,362,500 for the sale of 3 Charmer’s landing in 2018 vs. $2,847,768 for 16 Linda lane in 2019.

It may be that we will see these numbers change once people complete their taxes, and once yearly bonuses have been distributed, but it is difficult to predict. There have been an increasing number of multiple offers in the lower priced offerings which may be something that will continue for well-priced move-in condition homes below $800,000, more or less.