November 2013

Results for November were somewhat inconsistent across Mid-Fairfield. Fairfield and Weston showed increased activity, while Westport showed a slight slowdown for the month. All in all, home sales have increased year to date in all towns that we cover, and values have also increased. Fairfield saw a nice boost in November activity, with 69 homes going to contract in the month versus on 39 in November 2012. This represents an increase of over 75%. Closed sales for 2013 are up to 664 compared to 577 in the previous year. This 15% volume increase also comes with an increase in the median home price in Fairfield to $575,000 from $550,000 in 2012. This 4.7% increase is in line with statistical long term averages. Weston also saw a busy November, with 15 properties going to contract compared to only 7 in November 2012. Sales year to date are up to 155 from 121 at this time last November, and the median price has also increased 3.3% to $775,000. Values are still lagging but there have definitely been a lot more positive signs in 2013 than in 2012. Westport remains the hottest town in terms of median home values, but November saw a slight slowdown with only 23 closed sales compared to 32 in the previous November, though homes going to contract increased in November to 37 compared to 33 in 2012. Closed sales are up to 422 through November compared to 331 in 2012. The median home price year to date is $1,300,000. November saw a big jump in median price values, a sign of higher end homes turning over before the winter months, as some buyers are taking advantage of good value and seller flexibility. Buyer demand remains solid, and inventory in several sought after price points remains under represented.

October 2013 Update

As we approach the final months of the year we can now look at year-to-date results with a greater amount of certainty. Across all of the towns that we cover it is clear that year over year sales are up by solid amounts in all towns. At the same time we have actually seen more homes coming to the market than in the previous year. The resulting greater sales have produced what might be seen as an anomaly: the number of months of inventory, that is the number of months that it would theoretically take to sell off existing inventory has dropped in all towns. Certainly not to the levels seen when the market was at its hottest in the previous 2004-2006 cycle, but to respectable levels. When inventories are in the 5 month to 8 month range we find ourselves in a more balanced market with buyers and sellers at fairly equal footing. The larger cities, such as Norwalk and Stamford currently have the lowest number of months of inventory. The very similar numbers of 4.9 months in Norwalk, and 5.4 months in Stamford, are indicative of a larger buyer pool in the median and lower price ranges, thereby increasing competition amongst buyers. With a median price of $450,000 in Norwalk, and $560,000 in Stamford these two towns represent good value in the New York metropolitan area. They often offer a foothold for first time home buyers looking to move to the suburbs. The median price in Stamford, unlike the rest of our surveyed towns and cities remained flat, but October sales were solid up to 57 from 43 in the previous year, a 33% increase. Year to date closed sales are up by 44 homes to 548, a solid 18.9% increase. Year over year sales in Norwalk have also posted solid gains, up to 529 from 434 in 2012, or a 22% jump, and the median price, though the lowest of our group at $450,000, was up 5.2%. Westport has seen the number of new homes coming to the market in 2013 increase over the 2012 numbers. It's important to keep in mind that many of these homes are not technically new home listings, since they may have been relisted at new prices, or just relisted for sale after having been on the market in the previous year. Westport has the largest number of high end listings (over 40% of the current listings are over $2,000,000), but also with the largest number of high end sales (76 out of the the 397 sales year to date). The median price is Westport is still well below all time highs in the previous cycle, despite a very robust high end market. It is currently at just below $1,300,000. The median price is growing at historical levels-4.5% in 2013. Sales numbers are also back to historical levels, though with a large proportion of high end properties housing inventory stands at 8 months, the highest in our survey group. Weston has also seen a modest increase of 4% in its median priced homes to $775,000. Year over year sales are up 35.5% to 145 homes vs. 107 at this time of year in 2012. October closed sales were down in Weston, and more homes have continued to enter the market leaving monthly inventory at 12.7 months-the highest of our survey group, though increases in October were quite small. Wilton has seen slightly higher gains of 8.3% in median prices, to $801,500, slightly above Weston levels. Closed sales of single family homes are up to 247 from 190 in 2012, a whopping 30% increase, and inventory levels are down to a very respectable 5.7 months. The town of Fairfield has also seen increases of single home sales to 605 from 526 in 2012, a robust 15% increase, even with a slight dropoff in October closed sales. The median price has come up 4.7% to $549,000. Fairfield and Stamford have similar track records though Fairfield has seen slight comparative gains in the past 12 months. Waterfront sales are still feeling the effect of recent storms and are down somewhat in all coastal towns. Taking this into account the recent sales gains are that much more impressive. We can probably expect to see some gains in beach area sales next year if no sudden storms arrive unexpectantly, and as homes are raised in areas that were more severely impacted by the storms of 2012.

April 2013-a Hot Month

Not literally, but there was a sense in April that with low inventories prevailing it was time to act. The numbers continued to show strength. Closed sales in the month of April were up in every town, with Weston seeing a big jump relative to the previous year, though the numbers were solid everywhere. All towns are ahead of their 2012 numbers, though closed sales in Wilton for the month of April were exactly the same as in 2012, with 13 closed sales of single family homes. I always focus my attention on the sales going to contract in the month, the clearest indication of current activity. There again we see strong numbers everywhere. Weston and Wilton saw some big increases in April. Weston had 31 homes go to contract versus only 12 in April, 2012, and Wilton had 46 versus 24 the previous year. Westport had 52 properties vs. 45 in April 2012, and Fairfield 91 vs. 81 in '12. Stamford numbers continue to track along similar lines to Fairfield, with the lower end of the market seeing the majority of the sales. The 89 homes going to escrow in April compared to 63 in the previous year. Inventory in North Stamford continues to be relatively low, though movement has been slow as well. There continue to be situations with multiple offers for new inventory especially those that are seen as excellent value, and several new homes being sold before completion. Marketing times have been fairly steady, but Weston & Wilton have seen a marked increase in Marketing time, with April days on market in Weston going from 132 in April 2012 to 255 days in 2013, and Wilton seeing even longer marketing averages from 150 days in April 2012 to 282 days in April 2013. Sales in the beach areas along Long Island Sound are moving slowly, though typically these areas pick up activity in the warmer months. It is still premature to know whether they will be affected by the storm events of the previous year. Early indicators in May show a trickling of new inventory. I would expect to see this continuing through May and June.