Signs of an Early Spring Market

Activity in the first month of 2015 may be a precursor to a busy spring market.  The pattern that seems to be emerging in all Mid-Fairfield towns is one of increased activity.  All four towns that we cover saw a significant increase in the number of homes accepting offers. 

In Westport 31 homes accepted offers compared to 16 in January 2014, representing a 93.8 % increase.  At the same time the number of new properties was 17.8% lower as compared to January
2014.  The median price decreased slightly to $1,300,000 a reflection of activity in the lower end of the market towards the end of 2014.  Early activity also seems to indicate a strengthening of the market below $1,100,000, though new inventory at these levels has been relatively low.  Homes that have come on in good condition have accepted offers in less than two weeks, and in a few cases with
multiple offers.  The number of closed sales (activity from the 4th quarter of 2014) was exactly the
same as 2014 levels. 

In Weston, the median price for January was $900,000, higher than overall 2014 figures by almost 10%, though below January 2014 levels.  Though the median price is an important figure to follow,
the year end figures are what we focus on.  More important in the short run is the activity comparison year over year.  In this case the same jump in activity seen in Westport occurred at even a greater rate, with a jump of more than double the number of properties accepting offers compared to January
of 2014.  Closed sales were unchanged.

Wilton, which has seen a slight fall off in activity in the final months of the year also saw a nice upswing of 46+% of homes accepting offers, with 19 versus 13 in January of 2014.  The median sales price of $905,000 was above 2014 yearly levels.

Fairfield completed the pattern of increased accepted offers, with 66 homes accepting offers compared to 32 in January of 2014, a 106% increase!  New properties coming to the market decreased slightly to 103 compared to 114 in January 2014.  Closed sales were also up 62%, and the median price increased slightly to $569,000.  It will be interesting to see if the median price increases in Fairfield.  The more affordable end of the market has kept volumes higher in Fairfield, while higher end listings have languished. 

Mid-Term Real Estate Activity

2011 Midterm Results*

Now that we’re past the July 4th weekend and its aftermath, it’s time for a quick rundown on real estate activity. County-wide the median sales price has been practically unchanged at $430,000 in the past two quarters of results provided by the Connecticut Multiple Listing Service.
For those looking at homes in Southwest Connecticut these numbers may not seem reflective of local pricing, but bear in mind that Fairfield county extends well beyond the Mid-Fairfield area that I primarily cover. It is one of 8 counties in the state, but it is worth noting that it is the only county that saw positive growth in 2010 in both number of sales and volume of sales.
I usually use average pricing in my quarterly results, and use median pricing when looking at yearly results, comparing both average and median prices. The first two quarters of 2011 have seen increases in average pricing in most of the coastal towns including Westport, Fairfield, and Darien as well as inland towns such as Weston, Wilton and New Canaan.
This mid-term report covers the period from January 1, 2011 to June 30th, 2011. However, I wanted to note some of the more recent activity since July 1. There has been a mini burst in activity which reflects buyers and rentors looking to be settled before the beginning of the school year. Westport has seen 13 binders since July 1 for single family homes, and 12 rental binders during that time (as of July 15). The single family home asking prices averaged $1,142,421. This is about $200,000 below the average sale prices year to date (which I will speak about below)-an indication of recent activity under $1,000,000 in Westport.
Weston is only showing 2 recent binders since July 1, but a number as of yet unreported activity will increase these numbers in the weeks ahead. Wilton has showed increased strength in the past couple of weeks with 12 new binders on single family homes and 4 rental binders. The single family homes averaged listing price of $875,000 is slightly below sales averages in the first six months and confirms the lower end activity seen in Westport.
The ‘sweet spot’ of Fairfield real estate falls into the range under $1,000,000 as well, but the 17 recent binders had an average ask price of $783,682 which is actually higher than the average sales prices year to date (see below), as Fairfield has the most offerings at this price point. There were also 10 rental binders in the past two weeks.
In the first two quarters Westport has continued to outperform the surrounding towns in mid-Fairfield with 170 single family home sales in 2011 vs. 146 in the first 6 months of 2010. The average sales price was $1,362,070. Sales numbers have fallen in Wilton, Weston, and Fairfield, although the average sales prices have actually increased. Looking beyond mid-Fairfield, activity in Darien has decreased in the first two quarters, while New Canaan sales have increased. Combined sales in Darien and New Canaan was 179 compared to 170 in Westport, but their combined population of 38,000 is 10,000 more than Westport. Average sales prices are considerably higher in Darien and New Canaan, with a huge spike in the first two quarters in New Canaan to over $2,000,000 due in large part to 38 homes that have sold for over $2 million year to date.
2011 Weston sales have been similar to 2010 results with 54 sales in the first six months of 2011 vs. 59 in 2010. The average sales price has increased to $832,978 from $808,484 in 2010. Wilton sales were off as of June 30, but recent binders mentioned above have put in back on pace to match 2010 sales levels with average sales prices jumping to $917,081 as of June 30th, about 13% higher than the previous year.
Fairfield has taken the biggest ‘hit’ in sales volume in 2011 with only 254 single family home sales in the first six months vs. 303 in 2010. The most recent sales activity is a good sign for Fairfield, and there has been increased activity in the past month or so in the beach area.

*Statistics as per The Consolidated Multiple Listing Service

April 2011 Market Update

April 2011 Market Update

April started out strong in Westport, and tailed off a bit towards the end of the month. Still escrow activity increased by 56 homes compared to April 2010, or a 53.3% increase. With inventory increasingly slowly, (368 properties in 2011 vs. 362 the previous year) relative supply of homes decreased. The median sold price of $1.25 million in April ’11 compared favorably to the 735K in 2010-a good indicator of where sales are going, that is to say that the middle of the market is now where much of the activity is taking place, as compared to early 2010 which saw more activity in the lower end of the market. Year to date the median price of properties under escrow has increased to $1.14 million, up from 900k in 2010.

The picture of the Weston market in April was slightly different. Though April saw an increase in properties opening escrow, 25 vs. 14 in 2010, Weston is still about on the same pace as in 2010 and the median sold price of homes year-to-date of 747k compared to 822 k in 2010, is a sign of the lower end of the market driving sales. On a positive note the months of housing inventory decreased by 3.4% showing a slight improvement.

April saw a jump in escrow activity similar to Weston’s but year to date Wilton is doing better than Weston with 73 properties going to escrow vs. 54 in 2010 through April 30th, and the months of inventory declined to 8.2 months vs. 11.6 months in 2010. Median price increased in April to 905k but year to date that figure is 768k, a drop from 822k in 2010, and just slightly higher than in Weston.

Fairfield’s market seems to be improving. New properties dropped somewhat in April but the overall numbers year to date are down 25.9%. April saw a nice rebound in escrowed sales from 74 to 97 in 2011 and totals through the end of April are up from 200 in 2010 to 240 in 2011, an increase of 20 per cent. The median price of homes that have closed this year went up to $640,000 in April, an almost 30% increase over the previous year. Lower priced home sales still continue to dominate sales.

2010 Mid-Fairfield Real Estate Statistics thru Sept. 30

We continued to work our way back to sales that are more in line with statistical averages in the 3rd quarter but results were less sanguine than previously seen in the first half of the year. There was a marked slowdown in real estate activity in late April, May and June which coincided with the debt crisis in Greece, Spain and Portugal, and the oil spill in the Gulf.

Fortunately we appear to have gotten through those crises, and the stock market saw its strongest September gain since 1939. Questions still remain for some about the U.S. economy, and real estate buyers are still expressing some of that uncertainty, even though the latest Case-Schiller index indicated a rise in prices for the New York Metro area.

Westport sales of single family homes through Sept.30 totaled 269 vs. 174 in 2009, an increase of 54%. An additional 61 homes are currently under escrow. The monthly supply of inventory dropped from 16.4 months to 9.6 months, which is a reflection of sales of existing inventory. Actual inventory levels are down slightly from 2009 levels. The average sales price increased 1% to $1,393,604.

Weston sales continued to increase in the whole, from 63 in 2009 to 88 thus far in 2010, an increase of 40%. An additional 20 properties are under escrow. Average sales figures increased over 3% to $952,698, still lagging considerably averages that were seen before the turn in real estate prices. Two thirds of the activity has been below $1 million.

Wilton, with many similarities to its neighbor Weston, has been relatively less successful in terms of sales, with the smallest percentage increase (12.7%) in year to date sales activity: 127 closed sales compared to 102 in 2009 at this time. It also saw a slight drop ($20,000) in the average sales price to $885,340. There are an additional 24 properties under escrow.

Fairfield sales figures are also showing a positive balance sheet, with a 35% increase over year to date 2009 sales, with 468 single family homes sales recorded, and an additional 94 properties under escrow. However, the average sales price decreased 4% to $690,267. The bulk of sales (67%+) were under $700,000.



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Statistical data compiled from Consolidated Multiple Listing Service

2010 mid-year Real Estate statistics

Mid-Fairfield Real Estate Statistics*
January-June 2010
The area of Mid-Fairfield county includes the towns of Westport, Weston, Wilton and Fairfield. Since the majority of sales historically occur during the first 6 months of a calendar year, the results of this period are a telling indication of what the year will bring.

The improvement seen in the first quarter of 2010 continued in the second quarter in all 4 towns that are included in this survey. Past experience has shown that the town of Westport is the leading indicator of values. Projected 2010 Westport sales (including properties under contract) has already well surpassed 2009 closed sales. Year to date sales are 141 sales vs. 87 at this time last year, or an increase of 61%. The 221 properties that are currently under escrow represents a 95% increase over the same period last year. The median sold price increased 1.3% over the same time period last year. Most sought after price range is $1,350,000 and below.

The town of Weston has seen the largest improvement in the past year. Its closed sales are up 93.3% year to date, with 58 closed sales vs. 30 last year. The 75 properties under escrow represents a jump of 117%, and the number of new properties for sale has decreased 5.5% over the same time last year. The decrease in the median price of 5.5% is an indication of activity in the lower end of the Weston market, at $899,000 and below.

The town of Fairfield is the largest and most diverse in terms of demographics and housing stock. The number of closed sales has climbed from 180 to 292 over the same period last year, or an increase of 62.2%. The number of properties under escrow has also increased, from 236 to 390, or an increase of 65.3%. The median price decrease of 6.3% may be reflective of the number of entry level sales, which can be attributed in part to government first time home buyer incentives. The most sought after price range in Fairfield has been $899,000 and below, with a preponderance of sales below $600,000.

Wilton has also seen a nice increase in sales compared with 2009, up 54.5%, with 85 closed sales vs. 55 in 2009 ytd. Wilton and Weston have similar demographics, though Wilton has a more diverse housing stock. A comparison of the average sales prices between those towns is practically identical in 2010. The number of properties under escrow, an increase of 57.6% though sizeable, is below that of Weston, indicating that current activity in Weston is greater.

Sales have remained relatively even for 2009. Higher than usual activity in the higher end ($1 million) during the 4th quarter may be a signal of things to come in 2010. The average listing prices of homes currently under contract is signficantly above 2009 yearly averages in all towns except for Wilton.

Mortgage rates remain at historic lows and the conventional loan limit of $708,500 has been extended to 2010 for the time being. Demand should be high for homes listed at $1,200,000 and below.

Pricing has been particularly attractive to buyers for homes listed below $900,000 in Weston & Wilton. 123 of the 210 sales in 2009 in those towns fell into this range. Activity under $900,000 in Westport and Fairfield has also had the effect of lowering the average sales prices and the median prices.

Listing inventory throughout Fairfield County has decreased markedly from the highs seen in 2007, and this had been true in Mid-Fairfield as well.

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For additional Market Trend statistics please feel free to visit my website at www.RobMakesItSold.com. For a FREE price opinion on the value of your home, please call me at 203-952-6117.